临床医疗实践的决策分析在突发公共卫生事件中的应用  

Exploring the application of decision analysis in public health emergencies

作　　者：李政 胡明[1,2,3] 周雄 张宏伟 曹广文 谭晓㛃[1,2,3] LI Zheng;HU Ming;ZHOU Xiong;ZHANG Hongwei;CAO Guangwen;TAN Xiaojie(Faculty of Naval Medicine,Naval Medical University,Shanghai 200433,China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bio protection,Shanghai 200433,China;Key Laboratory of Biosecurity Defense,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]海军军医大学海军医学系海军流行病学教研室,上海200433 [2]上海市医学生物防护重点实验室,上海200433 [3]生物安全防御教育部重点实验室,上海200433

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2023年第11期1146-1152,共7页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2602900);上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(GWV-10.1-XK17)。

摘　　要：在面临≥2种选择时,合理的决策具有关键意义。临床医疗实践和公共卫生领域,越来越多的研究者将决策分析作为重要工具,运用决策模型得出最优方案,从而辅助做出选择。突发公共卫生事件具有群体性、突发性、不确定性的特点,除直接对社会公众健康造成严重损害以外,还可能对社会经济、人员心理乃至社会稳定造成不同程度的影响。目前尚未见到成熟完善的决策分析在突发公共卫生事件应对中的应用。通过综述决策分析在医学领域的发展及常用决策模型在临床医疗实践决策中的应用,本文结合当前全球传染病暴发流行的态势及防控,对建立突发公共卫生辅助决策系统提出构想与展望,旨在为医疗卫生工作者的突发公共卫生事件应对提供合理抉择的科学方法。When facing two or more choices,sound decision-making is critical.In the field of clinical medical practice and public health,more and more researchers use decision-making analysis as an important tool to assist in making the optimal choices.Public health emergencies have the characteristics of group cases,sudden and uncertain.In addition to causing serious damage to public health,they may also have varying degrees of impact on socio-economic,psychological and even social stability.At present,we have not seen the application of mature and sound decision analysis in public health emergency response.This paper reviewed the development of decision analysis in the medical field and the application of common decision-making models in clinical practice.Combined with the current situation of global infectious disease outbreaks and prevention and control,this paper puts forward the concepts and prospects of establishing an auxiliary decision-making system for public health emergencies,aiming to provide a scientific method for medical and health workers to respond to public health emergencies.

关 键 词：决策分析 医疗实践 公共卫生事件 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]