伊犁河谷“三生”空间景观生态风险时空演变与多情景模拟  

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi Scenario Simulation of Ecological Risks in“Three Lives”Spatial Landscape of Ili River Valley

作　　者：吴常蕊 王宏卫[1,2] 罗魁 郑旭东[1,2] 闫晓梅 WU Changrui;WANG Hongwei;LUO Kui;ZHENG Xudong;YAN Xiaomei(School of Geographic Science and Remote Sensing,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Oasis Ecological Autonomous Region,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理科学与遥感学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学新疆绿洲生态自治区重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期61-70,共10页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：新疆第三次综合科学考察资助项目(2021xjkk0902)。

摘　　要：基于伊犁河谷1990-2020年土地利用数据,利用景观生态风险评价模型探析“生产-生活-生态”(“三生”)空间及景观生态风险格局时空演变特征,借助PLUS模型模拟伊犁河谷2030年生产空间优先、生活空间优先和生态空间优先3种情景下“三生”空间格局及景观生态风险分布特征。结果表明:1990-2020年,伊犁河谷“三生”空间以草地生态空间为主,草地生态空间和林地生态空间面积呈减少趋势,其余空间呈增加趋势;1990,2000,2010,2020年景观生态风险均值分别为0.0355,0.0331,0.0348,0.0346,伊犁河谷景观生态风险呈先下降后上升趋势,风险等级在空间分布上呈现梯度变化;2020-2030年3种情景的景观生态风险均呈上升趋势,景观生态风险均值从大到小为生活空间优先情景、生态空间优先情景、生产空间优先情景。Based on the land-use data of the Ili River Valley from 1990 to 2020,the landscape ecological risk assessment model was used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the“production-living-ecological”(“three lives”)spaces and landscape ecological risk patterns.The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial patterns and the landscape ecological risk distribution characteristics of“three lives”under the three scenarios including the production space priority,the living space priority and the ecological space priority of the Ili River Valley in 2030.The results showed that,from 1990 to 2020,“three lives”spaces of Ili River Valley was dominated by the grassland ecological space,and the area of grassland ecological space and woodland ecological space showed a decreasing trend,while the remaining space showed an increasing trend.In 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,the average landscape ecological risks were 0.0355,0.0331,0.0348 and 0.0346,respectively.The landscape ecological risks of the Ili River Valley showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and the risk levels showed a gradient change in spatial distribution.From 2020 to 2030,the landscape ecological risks showed an upward trend under the three scenarios,and the average value of landscape ecological risks which ranged from high to low were the living space,the ecological space,and the production space of priority scenarios.

关 键 词：“三生”空间 景观生态风险 PLUS模型 模拟预测 伊犁河谷 

分 类 号：P901[天文地球—自然地理学] X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]