计及维护操作影响的变压器内部潜伏性故障率预测模型  

Prediction model of internal latent failure rate of transformer considering the influence of maintenance operation

作　　者：程欣 孙悦 黄威 廖庆龙 李轩 胡博[2] 谢开贵[2] CHENG Xin;SUN Yue;HUANG Wei;LIAO Qinglong;LI Xuan;HU Bo;XIE Kaigui(State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Economics and Technology Research Institute,Taiyuan 030000,China;State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment&System Security and New Technology,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Research Institute,Chongqing 404100,China)

机构地区：[1]国网山西省电力公司经济技术研究院,太原030000 [2]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400044 [3]国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院,重庆404100

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2024年第1期170-176,共7页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：国网指南项目(5100-201999332A-0-0-00)基于大数据的电力系统可靠性评估关键技术研究及应用。

摘　　要：为了量化维护操作对变压器故障率的实际影响,文中通过深度挖掘短时间尺度下变压器油色谱监测数据,建立了一个基于实时运行工况的变压器内部潜伏性故障率预测模型。对传统马尔科夫故障率模型的建模过程进行了分析,指出该模型中的自变量状态持续时间无法响应维护操作影响,提出对状态持续时间参数进行修正;具体步骤为利用R型聚类-主成分分析算法提取关键溶解气体种类;通过径向基函数神经网络建立了关键溶解气体含量与修正状态持续时间之间的映射关系;推导变压器内部潜伏性故障率关于修正状态持续时间的解析表达式。结果表明,与马尔科夫故障率模型相比,所建立的模型具备表征维护操作影响与变压器实际故障率的能力。In order to quantify the actual impact of maintenance operation on the transformer failure rate,this paper establishes a prediction model of transformer internal latent failure rate based on real-time operating conditions by deeply mining the oil chromatographic monitoring data on a short-time scale.This paper firstly analyzes the modeling process of the traditional Markov failure rate model,points out that the independent variable state duration in the model cannot respond to the influence of maintenance operation,and proposes to modify the state duration parameters.The specific steps are to extract the key dissolved gases based on R clustering analysis-principal component analysis(RCA-PCA).And then,the mapping relationship between the key dissolved gas contents and the modified state duration is determined by the radial basis function(RBF)neural network.Finally,the analytical expression of latent failure rate inside transformer with the modified state duration is derived.Results show that the proposed model has the ability to characterize the impact of maintenance operations and the actual failure rate compared with the traditional Markov model.

关 键 词：油浸式变压器 油色谱监测数据 内部潜伏性故障 时变故障率 

分 类 号：TM41[电气工程—电器]