新基建投资的经济效应、能耗与碳排放  

THE IMPACTS OF NEW INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC EFFECTS,ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS

作　　者：张宇宁 王艳华 王克[1] ZHANG Yuning;WANG Yanhua;WANG Ke(School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2023年第11期42-55,共14页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：中国人民大学2021年度拔尖创新人才培育计划成果。

摘　　要：本文基于中国非竞争型投入产出表和四经普就业数据,将结构化的宫泽乘数和居民部门“资本-收入-消费”内生的动态投入产出模型相结合,评估比较了“十四五”时期新基建投资计划与传统基建情景的经济效应、能耗与碳排放,并使用熵权TOPSIS法识别出影响七大类新基建投资效益的主要因素。研究表明:(1)新基建投资的经济效应与传统基建相比较弱,但新基建的能耗与碳排放强度到2025年分别下降至0.48吨标准煤当量/万元、0.97吨/万元,实现25.63%的二氧化碳减排;(2)单位投资效益上,新基建的GDP乘数(1.14)虽略低于传统基建(1.33),但其内生消费拉动的产出占比更大,表明新基建投资更有助于推动中国经济新旧动能的转换;(3)受益于良好的能耗与碳排放绩效,工业互联网和人工智能的综合效益水平分别达到0.65和0.60,高于5G、特高压等五类新基建。总之,本文通过识别七大类新基建在经济、能耗与碳排放上的短板因素,可为新基建投资的布局方向与优化决策提供政策建议。Based on China's non-competitive input-output table and the Fourth National Economic Census data,this paper combined the structural Miyazawa multiplier and the dynamic input-output model with the endogenous“capital-income-consumption”relation of residents to evaluate and compare the economic effects,energy consumption,and carbon emissions of the new infrastructure investment plan and traditional infrastructure scenarios during the 14th Five-year Plan period.The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is employed to identify the main factors influencing the comprehensive efficiency of investment in seven categories of new infrastructure.The results show that the economic effects of new infrastructure investment are relatively smaller than those of traditional infrastructure.However,the energy consumption and carbon emission intensity of new infrastructure can be reduced to 0.48tons of coal equivalent per ten thousand yuan and 0.97tons of CO2per ten thousand yuan respectively by 2025,achieving a 25.63%reduction in CO2emissions.In terms of unit investment efficiency,the GDP multiplier of new infrastructure is slightly lower than that of traditional infrastructure(1.14versus 1.33).However,the share of output driven by endogenous consumption is higher in the new infrastructure scenario,indicating that new infrastructure could further promote the transformation of growth drivers in China.Benefiting from favorable energy consumption and carbon emission performance,the comprehensive efficiency levels of industrial Internet and artificial intelligence have reached 0.65and 0.60respectively,higher than the other five categories of new infrastructures,such as 5Gand ultra-high voltage.Therefore,by identifying the buckets factors of seven categories of new infrastructure in terms of economy,energy,and carbon emissions,this paper can provide policy recommendations for the arrangement direction and optimization decision of new infrastructure investment.

关 键 词：新基建 经济效应 能耗排放 动态投入产出模型 熵权TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]