AMAP评估报告解读:北极气候变化及其影响的新认识  

Interpretation of AMAP Assessment Reports:update of Arctic climate change and impacts

作　　者：罗犀 张玉兰[1] 康世昌[1,2] 陈金雷 LUO Xi;ZHANG Yulan;KANG Shichang;CHEN Jinlei(State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院、西北生态环境资源研究院、冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2023年第6期1757-1766,共10页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608503);甘肃省杰出青年基金项目(23JRRA612);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLCS-ZZ-2022)资助。

摘　　要：北极理事会北极监测与评估计划(AMAP)工作组于2021年发布了《北极气候变化新进展2021:关键趋势和影响》科学评估报告。报告指出:过去49年(1971—2019年),北极近地表气温升高幅度(3.1℃)约为全球平均的3倍,导致北极降水、海冰、陆地冰、多年冻土和积雪等发生显著变化,冰川加速消融。除白令海外,北极海冰持续减少,是影响中纬度极端天气气候事件形成的原因之一。北极本地极端事件(极端降水、极端热事件、极端冷事件和极端野火)的频发也显著影响着北极生态系统和人类生活。不同情景下北极气候变化预估显示:2040年9月,北冰洋将首次出现无冰状态;到2050年,夏季无海冰将成为北极新常态。由于COVID-19疫情影响使得许多北极研究计划和项目推迟或取消,导致包括一些关键指标在内的数据集在2020—2021年出现空缺。The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program(AMAP)of the Arctic Council released“Arctic cli⁃mate change update 2021:key trends and impacts”in May 2021.The report presented that near-surface air warming in the Arctic has been three times greater than the global mean over the past 49 years(1971—2019),re⁃sulting in profound changes in Arctic precipitation,sea ice,land ice,permafrost,and snow cover.Glacial abla⁃tion was intensifying.Sea ice continued to decline in the Arctic other than the Bering Sea,which is one of the causes of mid-latitude extreme weather and climate events.Extreme events(extreme precipitation,extreme heat events,extreme cold events,and extreme wildfires)occurred frequently in the Arctic,significantly affecting Arctic ecosystems and Arctic communities.The latest climate models and scenarios projected that the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice in September for the first time,as early as 2040,and that no sea ice in summer will be the new norm by 2050.Unfortunately,the COVID-19 epidemic has caused many Arctic studies to be post⁃poned or canceled,resulting in gaps in datasets in 2020—2021 including some key indicators.Climate warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has been ranked as the top global environmental problem,and the Arctic amplification of climate change makes the Arctic one of the most dramatic areas of near-surface air temperature increasing,making the Arctic more vulnerable to climate change.Based on Arctic climate change assessment re⁃port of AMAP,this paper interprets the change characteristics of climate and cryospheric elements of the Arctic,the change characteristics of Arctic extreme events,and the impacts of Arctic ecosystem and social and econom⁃ic development.The results show that the Arctic climate is accelerating to a warmer and wetter state,and the in⁃stability of Arctic environmental elements is increasing,which has profound impacts on the Arctic ecosystem and economic and social development.To date,the concentration of greenhouse gases in the at

关 键 词：北极 气候变化 海冰 积雪 AMAP 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]