机场陆侧地面公共交通CO_(2)排放计算与特征分析  

Calculation and characteristic analysis of CO_(2) emissions in airport landside ground public transport

作　　者：于卓轩 胡荣[1] 谢吉伟 YU Zhuoxuan;HU Rong;XIE Jiwei(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Engineering and Design,Technical University of Munich,Munich 80333,Germany;Department of Training,Xiangyi Aviation Technology Co.,Ltd.,Zhuhai Guangdong 519030,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106 [2]慕尼黑工业大学工程与设计学院,慕尼黑80333 [3]珠海翔翼航空技术有限公司训练部,广东珠海519030

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2023年第6期89-97,共9页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1933117)。

摘　　要：为解决机场碳达峰问题,研究了机场陆侧交通对机场CO_(2)排放产生的重要影响,对机场CO_(2)进行科学分析并提出有效调控方法.首先,通过分析不同能源类型(纯电动、液化天然气和柴油)车辆的排放机理,构建机场地面公共交通CO_(2)排放量计算模型.其次,以深圳宝安机场为例,测算公交线路日均排放量并研究排放特征.然后,采用情景预测和弹性系数法探究CO_(2)人均日分摊量与发车频率间在不同弹性系数下的变动关系;并借助蒙特卡洛方法,对不同发展前景开展不确定性仿真,预测减排潜力.最后,分析机场陆侧交通基于旅客周转量的CO_(2)排放强度,计算不同方式分担比例对排放强度的影响.研究结果表明:深圳机场市内线路日均CO_(2)排放量约为19.07 t,占机场地面公共交通日均总排放量的72%;跨市巴士线路日均CO_(2)排放量约为7.42 t,若柴油公交车完全替代为纯电动公交可以下降52.8%的CO_(2)排放量;若乘客量对发车频率的弹性系数较大,可以通过加密班次降低人均分摊量;在技术突破情境下,预测2036年机场地面公共交通碳排放总量较2021年可下降33%,实现该领域碳达峰;机场陆侧交通基于旅客周转量的CO_(2)排放强度为0.0779 kg/(人·km),推动公交/巴士对出租/网约车和私家车的替代能够有效降低排放强度.In order to address the issue of achieving carbon peak at airports,the study focused on the impact of airport ground transportation COz emissions and conducted a scientific analysis of airport COz emissions,as well as proposed effective control methods.Firstly,this study constructs a COz emission calculation model for airport ground public transport by analyzing the emission mechanisms of dfferent vehicle types(pure elec-tric,liquefied natural gas,and diesel).Then,using data from Shenzhen Bao'an Airport as a case study,this research calculates the daily average emissions of bus routes and studies their emission characteristics.After that,the relationship between CO_(2) per capita and bus departure frequency at different elasticity coefficients is examined using scenario predictions and elasticity methods.Furthermore,Monte Carlo simulations are ap-plied to assess the uncertainty and predict emission reduction potential under different development scenarios.Finally,the CO,emission intensity of ground airport traffic based on passenger volume is analyzed,and the impact of different transport sharing ratio on emission intensity is calculated.The results show that urban bus routes at Shenzhen Airport produce a daily average CO_(2) emission of approximately 19.07 tons,constituting 72%of the daily total emissions from airport ground public transport.Intercity bus routes generate an average daily COz emission of around 7.42 tons.Replacing diesel buses with pure electric ones can reduce CO_(2) emis-sions by 52.8%.Furthermore,an increased service frequency can lower the per capita daily CO_(2) emissions when passenger volume exhibits significant elasticity to bus frequency.In scenarios involving technological breakthroughs,the study predicts a 33%reduction in the total carbon emissions from airport ground public transport in 2036 compared to 2021,contributing to carbon peak achievement in this sector.The study also analyzes the CO_(2) emission intensity of airport landside traffic based on passenger turnover,which is found

关 键 词：航空运输 碳排放特征 蒙特卡洛方法 机场碳排放 情景分析 弹性系数 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程] F562[经济管理—产业经济]