大汶河流域土地利用时空演变分析及生态空间多情景模拟  

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecological Space in Dawenhe River Basin

作　　者：罗义[1] 刘伟强 祁爱华 曲烨瑛 刘文焕 LUO Yi;LIU Wei-qiang;QI Ai-hua;QU Ye-ying;LIU Wen-huan(Department of municipal and Environmental Engineering Hebei University of Architecture,Zhangjiakou 075132,Hebei Province,China;School of Information Engineering Hebei University of Architecture,Zhangjiakou 075132,Hebei Province,China;Qingshuihe River Affairs Center,Zhangjiakou 075061,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河北建筑工程学院市政与环境工程系,河北张家口075132 [2]河北建筑工程学院信息工程学院,河北张家口075132 [3]张家口市清水河河务中心,河北张家口075061

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2024年第1期44-52,共9页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：河北建筑工程学院研究生创新基金项目(XY202240)。

摘　　要：多情景模拟土地利用演变为大汶河流域土地管理和推动区域高质量发展提供参考。基于大汶河流域1990、2000、2010和2020年土地利用数据,借助动态度和土地利用转移矩阵分析研究区近30年来的土地利用时空演变特征和相关驱动机制,从地理环境、社会经济和交通路网三方面选取12个驱动因子,设置生态保护、耕地优先和经济发展3种情景,利用PLUS模型模拟研究区2030年土地利用空间分布及对比分析各情景模拟差异。结果表明:①近30年来,耕地面积减少明显,达630 km^(2);建筑用地面积持续增长且增幅较大,占比从8.8%增至16.7%。②2020年土地利用模拟结果Kappa系数为0.89,总精度为93.15%,均高于标准,PLUS模型满足大汶河流域土地利用模拟要求。③综合3种情景模拟结果发现,耕地优先情景下,耕地面积总量得到有效保护,相对限制建筑用地面积的增长,同时生态环境和经济建设都得到较好保障。因此耕地优先情景更符合大汶河流域可持续发展的要求。Multi-scenario simulation of land use evolution provides reference for land management and promotes regional high-quality development in Dawenhe River Basin.This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and related driving mechanisms of land use in Dawen River Basin over the past 30 years.The analysis is based on land use data from 1990,2000,2010,and 2020.To identify the driving factors,12 variables were selected from three aspects:geographical environment,social economy,and transportation network.Three scenarios of ecological protection,arable land priority and economic development were set up.The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 in the study area,and the simulation differences among the scenarios were compared and analyzed.The results indicate that:①In the past 30 years,there has been a significant decrease in the area of cultivated land,reaching 630 km^(2);Building land area continued to grow and increased significantly,accounting for 8.8%to 16.7%.②The Kappa coefficient of land use simulation results in 2020 was 0.89,and the total accuracy was 93.15%,both exceeding the standard.The PLUS model met the requirements for land use simulation in the Dawenhe River Basin.③Based on the simulation results of the three scenarios,it is found that under the cultivated land priority scenario,the total cultivated land area is effectively protected,the growth of building land area is relatively limited,and the ecological environment and economic construction are well guaranteed.Therefore,the cultivated land priority scenario aligns more closely with the imperatives of sustainable development in the Dawenhe River Basin.

关 键 词：PLUS模型 土地利用 驱动因子 多情景模拟 大汶河流域 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程] F301.2[农业科学—农业工程]