云南边境地区人口与经济耦合协调变迁研究(2000~2020)  

On the Changes in Population Size and Economic Coupling Coordination in the Border Areas in Yunnan Province(2000~2020)

作　　者：晏月平 徐岗程 YAN Yueping;XU Gangcheng(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学民族学与社会学学院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《云南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第6期11-24,共14页Journal of Yunnan Normal University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“中国与‘一带一路’沿线国家人口问题、经济增长比较研究”(21FRKB001);云南省省级部门决策咨询研究课题“人口结构转型中的云南省人口老龄化研究”(ZD202114);云南大学创新团队建设项目(CY2262420230)。

摘　　要：云南边境地区传统地理区位劣势明显,“兴边强边、稳边富民”行动和现代化建设面临一定挑战。如何破解区位劣势积极融入边贸口岸经济,有力推进人口与经济有序协调分布,探索富有边境地区特色创新发展的“云南模式”,对推进沿边地区高质量全局发展意义非凡。文章使用2000年以来3次全国人口普查与历年云南统计年鉴数据,探讨了2000~2020年云南省边境县(市)人口与经济耦合协调的变迁趋势,并构造面板数据基于OLS回归分析人口因素的影响。结果表明:2000~2020年,该区域人口负增长范围持续扩大,经济发展总体积极向好,人口与经济耦合协调度不断提高,但区域内发展差距不断扩大;边境县(市)应综合调控区域人口空间格局,以适配区域经济社会发展,积极提升人口质量,释放人口质量红利;加快就业人口向文旅产业转移,积极发展农文旅、民俗风情旅边境全域游;抓住机遇释放边贸与口岸红利,简化通过报关流程,助力边贸进一步发展。The traditional geographical disadvantages of Yunnan's border areas are obvious,and there are certain challenges to the“consolidating the border area,prospering the border area and enriching the border people”initiative and to the path of modernization.How to solve the geographical disadvantages and actively integrate into the trading-port economy in the borderland,how to vigorously promote the orderly and coordinated distribution of population and economy,how to explore the“Yunnan model”of innovative development with characteristics of the border areas,and how to promote the overall high-quality development in the border areas are of great significance.This paper uses the data from CHINA POPULATION CENSUS YEARBOOK between 2000 and 2020,and YUNNAN STATISTICAL YEARBOOK to explore the changing trend of population and economic coupling coordination in the border counties(cities)of Yunnan province between 2000 and 2020,and construct the panel data to analyze the influencing factors based on the OLS regression.It has the following conclusions:from 2000 to 2020,the negative population growth in this region is expanding,the economic development is generally positive,the coupling coordination of population and economy is improving,but the development gap within the region is increasing;the border counties(cities)should flexibly regulate the regional population distribution in order to match the socio-economic development of the region,actively improve the quality of the population,further reap the quality-based demographic dividends,accelerate the transfer of the employed population to the cultural and tourist industry,actively develop agricultural and cultural tourism,folk-custom border tourism,seize the opportunity to reap the border-trade and port-trading dividends,simplify the process of the customs clearance,and help further development of the border trade.

关 键 词：云南边境 人口与经济 耦合协调 OLS回归 人口质量红利 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]