基于故障树分析方法的海底管汇风险评估与可靠性分析  

Risk Assessment and Reliability Analysis of Subsea Manifold System Based on FTA

作　　者：尚照辉 SHANG Zhaohui(Henan Innovation Science and Technology Magazine,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南《创新科技》杂志社,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《河南科技》2023年第24期45-49,共5页Henan Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51909236);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQ19E090009)。

摘　　要：【目的】海底石油生产设施在特定条件下可能面临极端或意外事件(如石油泄漏),相关的工程设计和科学研究面临诸多挑战。应用风险评估和可靠性研究,分析工程应用中管汇存在的缺陷,以有效地提高海底管汇系统的可靠性和使用寿命。【方法】针对海底管汇生产过程中存在的风险因素进行定性和定量分析,并基于故障树分析(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)方法和可靠性分析模型确定系统薄弱环节/风险点。【结果】生产系统中较为复杂模块的可靠性下降较快,将决定整个系统的稳定性、可靠性、操作性及使用寿命。【结论】管汇系统中,生产系统模块对整个系统的可靠性影响最大。在生产系统模块中,球阀是最薄弱的环节,对顶事件的可靠性影响最大,是管汇系统中的风险点。[Purposes]Subsea oil production facilities may face extreme or unexpected events(such as oil spills)under certain conditions,and the related engineering design and scientific research face many challenges.Risk assessment and reliability studies are applied to analyze manifold systems defects in en⁃gineering applications in order to effectively improve the reliability and service life of subsea manifold systems.[Methods]The risk factors in the production process of subsea manifold systems were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively,and the weak links/risk points of the system were determined based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and reliability analysis model.[Findings]The reliability of complex modules in the production system decreases rapidly,which will determine the stability,reliability,operability and service life of the whole system.[Conclusions]In the subsea manifold systems,the production system module has the greatest impact on the reliability of the whole system.The ball valve is the weakest link in the production system module,which has the greatest impact on the reliability of the top event,and is the risk point in the manifold system.

关 键 词：管汇系统 故障树分析 定性和定量分析 风险评估 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：TE937[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]