大沽河流域海水入侵数值模拟及其全局敏感性分析  

Numerical simulation of seawater intrusion in the Dagu River Basin and its global sensitivity analysis

作　　者：张迪 王煜 郑小康 曹智伟 ZHANG Di;WANG Yu;ZHENG Xiaokang;CAO Zhiwei(Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [2]南京大学地球科学与工程学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《水资源保护》2024年第1期100-107,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204305)。

摘　　要：基于SEAWAT建立三维海水入侵数值模型对胶州湾附近大沽河流域滨海含水层的非稳定海水入侵过程进行了模拟,并利用2010年1月1日至2018年6月1日的地下水位和Cl-质量浓度观测数据对海水入侵数值模型中的水文地质参数进行校准和验证,同时利用全局敏感性分析评估含水层渗透系数和给水度等水文地质参数以及由降水入渗补给和地下水开采组成的源汇项对海水入侵数值模型的影响。结果表明:海水入侵的发展对降水入渗补给和地下水开采最为敏感,而渗透系数的影响则相对次要;增加降水补给量和减少地下水开采量可以有效地降低未来海水入侵的范围。Based on SEAWAT,a 3D seawater intrusion numerical model was established to simulate the unstable seawater intrusion process in the coastal aquifer of the Dagu River Basin near Jiaozhou Bay.The observation data of groundwater level and Cl-mass concentration from January 1,2010 to June 1,2018 was used to calibrate and validate the hydrogeological parameters of the seawater intrusion numerical model.At the same time,the global sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the impact of hydrogeological parameters such as aquifer permeability coefficient and water yield,as well as the source sink term composed of precipitation infiltration recharge and groundwater extraction,on the numerical model of seawater intrusion.The results show that the development of seawater intrusion is the most sensitive to precipitation infiltration recharge and groundwater exploitation,while the influence of permeability coefficient is relatively minor.Increasing precipitation recharge and reducing groundwater mining output can effectively reduce the scope of seawater intrusion in the future.

关 键 词：海水入侵数值模型 滨海含水层 全局敏感性分析 SEAWAT 大沽河流域 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]