自然灾害脆弱性评估模型的建立及损失研究  

Establishment of Natural Disaster Vulnerability Assessment Model and Loss Study

作　　者：王潇 黄昕桐 高继炜 王磊 张国伟 WANG Xiao;HUANG Xintong;GAO Jiwei;WANG Lei;ZHANG Guowei(College of Safety Engineering,Shenyang Aerospace University,Shenyang 110136,China;College of mechanical,Shenyang Institute of Engineering,Shenyang 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳航空航天大学安全工程学院,沈阳110136 [2]沈阳工程学院机械学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2023年第1期88-92,共5页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：辽宁省社科规划基金重点项目(L21ATJ012)。

摘　　要：火车站是人员聚集的高风险场所,一旦发生地震,损失巨大。文章主要针对火车站进行地震风险分析和损失评估研究,首先通过能力需求谱的方法建立火车站地震易损性评估的脆弱性评估模型,并以沈阳市的沈阳北站、新民站、新城子站遭受5级或6级地震为例,根据脆弱性评估模型计算各车站的潜在破坏概率,再预估发生地震将带来的直接经济损失。研究结果表明,处于较高震级时发生地震导致的直接经济损失较高,且研究对象的各个系统存在不同破坏概率,当处于5级或6级地震风险时研究对象破坏程度主要集中于轻微破坏。研究结果可为决策者防灾救援等工作提供理论依据。The railway station is a high-risk place for people to gather.Once an earthquake occurs,the loss will be huge.This paper mainly discusses the seismic risk analysis and loss assessment of the railway station.It provides an important theoretical guidance for risk decision-making of disaster prevention and preparedness.Firstly,the vulnerability assessment model of railway station seismic vulnerability assessment is established by the method of capacity-demand spectrum.Subsequently,we take Shenyang North Station,Xinmin Station and Xinchengzi Station in Shenyang as examples.According to the vulnerability assessment model,the potential damage probability of each station was calculated.Then,the direct economic losses caused by the earthquake were estimated.Finally,the results show that the direct economic losses caused by earthquakes at higher magnitudes are higher.There are different damage probabilities in each system of the research object.When the risk of magnitude 5 or 6 earthquake occurs,each system of the railway station is in different damage probability and the probability of minor damage is greater.At the same time,the damage degree of the research object mainly focuses on slight damage.

关 键 词：火车站地震 能力需求谱 破坏概率 经济损失评估 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] X43[天文地球—固体地球物理学]