2010—2019年武汉市前列腺癌疾病负担分析及死亡率预测  

Disease burden and mortality forecast of prostate cancer in Wuhan in 2010-2019

作　　者：孙金义 严亚琼[2] 郭燕[2] 宇传华[1,3] 龚洁 SUN Jinyi;YAN Yaqiong;GUO Yan;YU Chuanhua;GONG Jie(Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430071,China;Wuhan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan,Hubei 430015,China;Global Health Institute,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学公共卫生学院流行病与生物统计学系,湖北武汉430071 [2]武汉市疾病预防控制中心慢病所,湖北武汉430015 [3]武汉大学全球健康中心,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2024年第1期39-44,共6页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82173626);湖北省卫健委2019年度第三批联合基金预防专项-重大项目(WJ2019H304)。

摘　　要：目的对2010—2019年武汉市前列腺癌数据进行分析,了解武汉市前列腺癌发病、死亡和YLL的特点及变化趋势,为武汉市制定相应癌症防治策略提供决策依据和参考。方法使用武汉市死因监测系统收集的武汉市2010—2019年死亡及2013—2017年发病个案数据,Excel 2016和Python计算武汉市前列腺癌的发病率、死亡率、早死所致损失寿命年(YLL)等指标。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型(BAPC)预测武汉市2020—2024年前列腺癌死亡率。趋势变化采用年度平均变化百分比(AAPC)进行描述。结果2010—2019年,武汉市前列腺癌发病、死亡、YLL率基本呈现上升趋势(AAPC>0,P<0.05)。中心城区的标化死亡和发病率均明显高于远城区,85岁及以上组发病和死亡率最高,0~54岁年龄组有最大的发病和死亡率上升幅度。2020—2024年武汉市前列腺癌呈轻微上升趋势(增幅为0.94%)。结论武汉市前列腺癌的发病、死亡、YLL率呈现上升趋势,且可能继续上升。总体呈中心城区高于远城区,高年龄组高于低年龄组特点,需采取针对性措施及加强对高危人群的筛查。Objective To analyze the data of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019,understand the characteristics and trends of incidence,mortality,and YLL,and provide decision-making basis for Wuhan′s cancer prevention and control strategies.Methods Data on deaths and incident cases of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2010 to 2019 and from 2013 to 2017,respectively,were collected from the Wuhan Death Monitoring System.Indicators such as incidence rate,mortality rate,and years of life lost due to premature death(YLL)of prostate cancer in Wuhan were calculated using Excel 2016 and Python.The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model(BAPC)was used to predict the mortality rate of prostate cancer in Wuhan from 2020 to 2024.The trend changes were described using the annual average percentage change(AAPC).Results From 2010 to 2019,the incidence,mortality,and YLL rates of prostate cancer in Wuhan showed an overall increasing trend(AAPC>0,P<0.05).The standardized mortality and incidence rates in the central urban area were significantly higher than those in the outer urban area,and the age group of 85 and above had the highest incidence and mortality rates.The age group of 0-54 had the largest increase in incidence and mortality rates.From 2020 to 2024,prostate cancer in Wuhan is expected to continue to increase slightly(an increase of 0.94%).Conclusion The incidence,mortality,and YLL rates of prostate cancer in Wuhan are showing an overall increasing trend,and this trend may continue.The characteristics are higher in the central urban area than in the outer urban area,and higher in the older age group than in the younger age group.Targeted measures need to be taken,and screening for high-risk populations should be strengthened.

关 键 词：前列腺癌 死亡率 发病率 疾病负担 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]