基于露点法空气相对湿度估算的马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报  

Prediction of potato late blight beginning period based on air relative humidity estimation by dew point method

作　　者：武强 罗孳孳 郭安红 阳园燕 刘晓菱 张德军 韩旭 WU Qiang;LUO Zi-zi;GUO An-hong;YANG Yuan-yan;LIU Xiao-ling;ZHANG De-jun;HAN Xu(China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy,Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;Agricultural Technology Promotion Center of Wuxi County in Chongqing City,Chongqing 405800,China;Jiangjin Modern Agrometeorology Test Station of Chongqing City,Chongqing 402260,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]重庆市巫溪县农业技术推广中心,重庆405800 [4]重庆市江津现代农业气象试验站,重庆402260

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2023年第8期1658-1667,共10页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J073、CXFZ2021J068);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42175193);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(2023NSCQ-MSX4516);重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202213)。

摘　　要：为解决山地环境下马铃薯晚疫病等农业病虫害预报应用场景对近地空气相对湿度数据资料的切实需求,本研究以连续性空气温度、湿度数据集为基础样本,分析不同环境条件下露点法估算空气相对湿度的准确性,讨论以环境温湿度条件为协同参照指标的露点法估算空气相对湿度的质量控制有效性。以马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报为例,论证基于露点法空气相对湿度估算的马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报效果。结果表明,露点法空气相对湿度估算值与实测值一致性较好,决定系数、平均绝对误差、相对误差、一致性系数分别为0.44、8.07%、0.11%、0.97,但在实际环境空气相对湿度较小的情况下,存在明显的高估。不同环境条件对露点法估算空气相对湿度准确性的影响不同,估算准确性随环境湿度增大而提高,实际空气相对湿度为60%以上时,准确性较高;估算准确性随环境温度的变化表现为环境温度在10℃以上时,准确性较高。应用露点法估算的空气相对湿度对马铃薯晚疫病始发期进行预报,预报漏报率普遍在30.0%以下,最低为16.7%。结合作物病害发生与防控的实际情况,露点法估算空气相对湿度在马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报中表现出良好的应用效果。To solve the practical demand for near-ground air relative humidity data in application scenarios of agricultural diseases and pests forecast such as potato late blight prediction in mountainous environment,in this study,the accuracy of air relative humidity estimated by dew point method under different environmental conditions was analyzed based on basic samples such as continuous air temperature and humidity data set.The quality control effectiveness of air relative humidity estimated by dew-point method with environmental temperature and humidity conditions as co-reference indices was discussed.Taking the prediction of beginning date of potato late blight as an example,the prediction effect of the beginning date of potato late blight based on air relative humidity estimated by dew point method was demonstrated.The results showed that,the consistency between estimated air relative humidity by dew point method and measured value was good,the determination coefficient,mean absolute error,relative error and consistency index were 0.44,8.07%,0.11%and 0.97,respectively.The estimated values were obviously overestimated under the condition of low air relative humidity in actual environment.The influence of different environmental conditions on the accuracy of air relative humidity estimated by dew point method was different,and the estimation accuracy enhanced as the environmental humidity increased.The estimation accuracy was high when the practical air relative humidity was above 60%,or the environmental temperature was above 10℃.The prediction omission rate of the beginning date of potato late blight based on air relative humidity estimated by dew point method was generally below 30.0%,with the minimum value 16.7%.In comprehensive consideration of the actual occurrence and prevention of crop diseases,the dew point method in estimating air relative humidity shows good application effect on the prediction of the beginning date of potato late blight.

关 键 词：露点法 空气相对湿度 马铃薯晚疫病 始发期 预报 

分 类 号：S431.13[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]