1950-2021年全球陆表风速及发电风能时空变化  

Spatiotemporal variations of global land surface wind speed and wind power energy density from 1950 to 2021

作　　者：杨飞[1,3] 姚作芳[2] 邓春暖 赵越[4] 杨赞先 YANG Fei;YAO Zuofang;DENG Chunnuan;ZHAO Yue;YANG Zanxian(State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;School of Marine Sciences,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Appraisal Center for Environment and Engineering,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]广西大学海洋学院,南宁530004 [3]云南师范大学地理学部,昆明650500 [4]生态环境部环境工程评估中心,北京100012

出　　处：《资源科学》2023年第11期2276-2289,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171079);中国工程院-UNESCO防灾减灾知识服务中心建设项目(CKCEST-2022-1-41);ANSO“一带一路”国际科学组织联盟资助项目(ANSO-CR-KP-2022-06)。

摘　　要：【目的】气候变暖直接影响着全球风速变化及风能资源利用效率,通过分析历史风速变化,准确掌握近些年全球陆表风速的变化规律是气候变化应对、资源高效利用、生态安全管理、社会可持续发展等重要内容。【方法】利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA5-Land的0.1°×0.1°网格再分析风速数据集,采用最小二乘法、Theil-Sen斜率估算、Mann-Kendll趋势检验等方法,研究1950—2021年近72年全球年、季节和月平均风速演变的时空特征和适宜风力发电区的风能密度变化。【结果】①1950—2021年间全球陆地表面平均风速整体上以0.020 m/(s·10a)的速率略微递增。②全球陆地表面风速变化区域差异显著,其中非洲和南极洲大陆的平均风速变化最为明显。③全球陆表风速时间序列变化结果表明,季节变化中以冬季变化趋势最显著,平均为0.033 m/(s·10a);月平均风速变化较为明显的是12月、1月、6月;全球陆表平均风速年际变化在通过95%显著性检验的区域中,显著增加和显著降低的平均变化速率分别为0.073 m/(s·10a)和-0.066 m/(s·10a);在通过99%极显著性检验的区域中,极显著增加和极显著降低的平均变化速率分别为0.080 m/(s·10a)和-0.071 m/(s·10a);南极洲的月平均风速变化速率和范围较大,显著影响全球平均风速变化的评估。④全球发电风能密度略微增加,平均增速为3.017 W/(m^(2)·10a);全年中以1月和12月增加最快,分别达7.086 W/(m^(2)·10a)、6.660 W/(m^(2)·10a)。七大洲中以南极洲和非洲风能密度增加变化最为显著,分别为14.107 W/(m^(2)·10a)、4.652 W/(m^(2)·10a);亚洲是七大洲中的发电风能密度总体变化唯一呈现降低趋势的大洲;其他四大洲发电风能密度变化相对较小。【结论】全球陆表风速和发电风能密度总体变化不显著,但在非洲和南极洲等的部分区域、以及1月和12月等时期的增加趋势较为显著,需要�[Objective]Climate change directly affects global wind speed changes and the efficiency of wind energy resource utilization.Analyzing wind speed historical changes is one of the important topics for climate change response,efficient resource utilization,ecological security management,and sustainable social development.[Methods]Using the ERA5-Land grid reanalysis wind speed dataset at the 0.1°resolution from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and methods such as least squares,Theil-Sen slope estimation,and MK trend test to study the annual,seasonal,and monthly average wind speed trends and the evolution of suitable wind power areas over the past 72 years from 1950 to 2021 worldwide.[Results](1)The global mean land surface wind speed increases slightly at an overall rate of 0.020 m/(s·10a)from 1950 to 2021.(2)The surface wind speed changes on a global scale exhibit significant spatial differences,especially remarkable in Africa and Antarctica in comparison with other continents.(3)As the seasonal changes,the land surface wind speed in winter season shows the significant changes,with a changing rate of 0.033 m/(s·10a).As the months changes,December,January and June exhibit particularly noticeable variations of surface wind speed.The global mean land surface wind speed has a mean rate of change of 0.073 m/(s·10a)and-0.066 m/(s·10a)for significant increases and decreases,respectively,in the regions passing the 95%significance test;and it has the mean rate of change of 0.080 m/(s·10a)and-0.071 m/(s·10a)for extremely significant increases and decreases,respectively,for the region passing the 99%highly significant test.The monthly average wind speed change rate and range in Antarctica are relatively large,affecting significantly the global average wind speed change rate and area assessment.(4)The global wind power energy density has slightly increased,with an average growth rate of 3.017 W/(m^(2)·10a).The increase was most significant in January and December of the year,reaching 7.086 W/

关 键 词：风速 发电风能密度 变化速率 Mann-Kendll趋势检验 多时空尺度 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]