隧道盾构施工地表沉降量预测方法研究  

Study on Prediction Method of Ground Settlement during Tunnel Shield Construction

作　　者：张延彬 ZHANG Yanbin(China Railway 18th Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 401135,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁十八局集团有限公司,重庆401135

出　　处：《南京工程学院学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期85-89,共5页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：隧道盾构施工地表沉降量变化具有不规则性,导致地表沉降量预测难度增加.为了获得更为准确的沉降量预测值,设计一种隧道盾构施工地表沉降量预测方法.从横向沉降和纵向沉降出发分析隧道盾构施工地表沉降变化趋势,根据沉降变化趋势与盾构施工样本矩阵得到协方差系数,并对其进行降维处理;将处理后的样本数据输入隧道盾构施工地表沉降量预测模型,得到预测结果.通过与三种传统预测方法的对比试验,表明本文预测方法的决定系数在0.8~1.0,隧道盾构施工地表沉降量预测的均方根误差在0.05~0.15,平均绝对误差在0.05~0.07,预测精准均高于三种传统方法,可以应用于隧道盾构施工地表沉降量的预测.The change of surface settlement during tunnel shield construction is irregular,which makes it more difficult to predict the surface settlement.In order to obtain a more accurate prediction value of settlement,a new prediction method of surface settlement during tunnel shield construction is designed.The variation trend of surface settlement during tunnel shield construction is analyzed from the horizontal settlement and longitudinal settlement.The covariance coefficient is obtained according to the variation trend of settlement and the sample matrix of shield construction,and its dimension is reduced.Input the processed sample data into the prediction model of ground settlement during shield tunneling to obtain accurate prediction results.The experimental results show that the determination coefficient of the designed prediction method is about 0.8~1.0,the root mean square error of the prediction of ground settlement in tunnel shield construction is between 0.05~0.15,and the average absolute error is between 0.05~0.07.The prediction accuracy is higher,and it can be widely used in the field of ground settlement prediction in tunnel shield construction.

关 键 词：隧道盾构施工 地表沉降量 沉降量预测 决定系数 误差 

分 类 号：TD82[矿业工程—煤矿开采]