如何提高中国居民消费率?——基于居民收入分配视角的分析与测算  

How to Increase China's Consumer Spending Rate?An Analysis and Estimation from the Perspective of Income Distribution among Residents

作　　者：李禛临 岳希明[1] Li Zhenlin;Yue Ximing

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872

出　　处：《世界社会科学》2023年第5期66-86,242,243,共23页SOCIAL SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL

基　　金：2022年度国家社会科学基金项目“新时代我国财税再分配的精准调节机制研究”(22&ZD090)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：消费需求不足是长期以来影响中国经济增长和经济发展模式转变的重要因素。当前从居民收入分配视角,可以探究收入分配不平等对居民消费的影响,并测算通过改善收入分配可以在多大程度上提高居民整体的消费水平。实证分析方面,基于中国家庭收入调查项目(CHIP)的多轮微观数据可有以下研究发现。一是收入分配是居民消费倾向变动的重要因素之一,1995—2018年间其贡献处于10%~30%,并且改善收入分配可以促进居民整体消费倾向的上升。二是当前在总收入不变的情况下,将收入最高20%群体可支配收入的10%转移给收入最低20%群体,可以使居民消费总量提高3.73%,由此推算居民消费率可以从38.67%上升至39.54%,进而扩大需求,有利于拉动经济增长。此外,在测算过程中,可以从微观角度,对中国不同收入阶层的平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向进行估计和分析。Insufficient consumer demand has been a crucial factor affecting China's long-term economic growth and the transformation of its economic development model.From the perspective of household income distribution,we can explore the impact of income distribution inequality on consumer behavior and measure the extent to which improving income distribution can enhance overall consumer levels.In terms of empirical analysis,multiple rounds of microdata from the China Household Income Project(CHIP)have yielded the following research findings.Firstly,income distribution is one of the important factors influencing changes in consumer behavior,contributing between 10%and 30%to overall consumption tendencies from 1995 to 2018.Moreover,improving income distribution can promote an increase in the overall consumer tendency.Secondly,under the condition of unchanged total income,transferring 10%of the disposable income of the top 20%income group to the lowest 20%income group can increase total consumer spending by 3.73%.Based on this calculation,the consumer rate can rise from 38.67%to 39.54%,thereby expanding demand and benefiting economic growth.Additionally,in the calculation process,it is possible to estimate and analyze the average consumption tendencies and marginal consumption tendencies of different income groups in China from a micro perspective.

关 键 词：收入分配 居民消费 平均消费倾向 边际消费倾向 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]