减税对经济增长的提振效应及其作用机制——基于增值税转型的研究  

Boosting Effect of Tax Cuts on Economic Growth and Its Mechanism:Evidence from VAT Tax Reform in China

作　　者：马光荣[1] 黄叙涵 MA Guang-rong;HUANG Xu-han(China Financial Policy Research Center, Renmin University of China;School of Finance, Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2023年第11期5-23,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“税收政策的福利效果评估”(批准号71973142);国家社会科学基金重大项目“现代财政—金融结合框架下的地方债务管理研究”(批准号21&ZD095)。

摘　　要：减税是稳定和提振经济增长的重要举措,明确减税在何种程度上提振经济增长及其作用机制是优化减税政策的关键。本文利用增值税转型政策的全面实施,评估和分析了减税提振经济增长的乘数效应,并利用该政策对不同行业实际减税力度的差异以及地区事前产业结构的差异,对不同地区所受的减税冲击进行度量,发现减税显著提振了地区经济增长。结合减税拉动受益企业增长的直接效应与减税通过产业关联产生的间接效应,本文估计减税的地区乘数在3.5左右。进一步考虑地区间的溢出效应,将地区减税乘数拓展为全国乘数,估计得到减税的全国乘数在3左右。本文还考察了减税提振经济增长的作用渠道,发现以增值税转型为代表的资本性减税对地区经济增长的提振作用主要是通过政策带动固定资产投资增长的方式实现,政策拉动就业和促进消费的作用较为微弱。Stabilizing and boosting economic growth is a prerequisite for high-quality development.In the toolbox of macroeconomic control,tax cuts are an important initiative to stabilize and boost economic growth in China,and clarifying to what extent tax cuts boost economic growth is the key to optimizing the tax cut policy.Taking advantage of the full implementation of the VAT reform,this paper aims to evaluate the boost effect of the tax cuts on economic growth and analyze its mechanism in stimulating economic growth.The theoretical analysis of this paper points out that the boosting effect of tax cuts on economic growth not only depends on the direct effect of promoting the growth of enterprises benefiting from the policy,but also promotes the growth of non-directly benefited enterprises through the indirect general equilibrium effects.Using the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database,this paper constructs an exogenous measure of the tax cut shocks to different regions,and uses regional panel data during2003—2013 to estimate the effect of the VAT reform on economic growth.Combining the direct effect of tax cuts and the indirect effect through industrial linkages,this paper estimates that the regional multiplier of tax cuts is around 3.5.Further considering the spillover effects among regions,this paper extends the regional tax cut multiplier to the national multiplier,and estimates that the national multiplier of tax cuts is around 3.This paper finds that tax cuts generate positively indirect effect through the linkage with upstream industries in a region;however,in the inter-regional context,the negative spillovers of tax cuts makes the regional multiplier slightly larger than the national multiplier,as regions with larger tax cuts will suck out investment from other regions with smaller tax cuts.This paper further analyzes the mechanism of tax cuts to boost economic growth,and finds that tax cuts for capital represented by the VAT reform mainly drive economic growth by promoting investment.In contrast,this type of

关 键 词：减税 税收乘数 经济增长 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]