地方政府专项债务限额如何合理分配  

How to Reasonably Allocate the Limit of Local Government Special Debt

作　　者：钟宁桦[1] 胡林杉 钱一蕾 蔡冬美 ZHONG Ning-hua;HU Lin-shan;QIAN Yi-lei;CAI Dong-mei(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2023年第11期81-99,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下地方政府性债务风险管控的目标、难点与实现路径研究”(批准号19ZDA073);国家自然科学基金面上项目“08年金融危机后我国金融效率下降与国有企业改革”(批准号71973101)。

摘　　要：近年来,专项债券在稳投资、稳增长方面起到了重要作用。为用足用好专项债券资金,专项债务限额的合理分配成了重中之重。财政部为各地债务限额的分配制定了标准,但在实践中,部分地区分配到的债务限额与其经济基本面存在偏离。本文根据财政部制定的限额分配公式,测算了其中的客观经济因素对实际新增专项债务限额的解释力度。结果发现,在省份层面,财政实力、投资需求和债务风险约能解释73%的新增限额,而在地级市层面仅为63%。本文进一步使用地级市层面的数据探究地方专项债务限额的分配逻辑并发现,除分配公式中提及的客观经济因素外,地方政府对债务资金的使用进度和效果、争取债务限额的动机和能力在一定程度上影响了地区新增限额的分配。最后,本文评估了地级市层面限额分配的合理性,并考察了不同的分配结果所产生的后续影响。研究发现,过量的债务额度拉动了投资和经济增长,但也导致当地偿债能力的恶化。在此基础上,本文根据专项债务限额分配和使用情况将地级市划分为四类,对各类地方政府债务管理提出针对性建议,助力防范化解地方债务风险。Local fiscal revenue growth has slowed in recent years due to growing economic downturn pressures and the cooling real estate market.On the contrary,the issuance of local government bonds,especially special bonds,has grown against the trend,becoming the largest incremental fiscal resource in recent years.To make full use of special bond funds,the reasonable allocation of special debt limits has become the top priority.The Ministry of Finance of China has formulated standards for the allocation of debt limits for each region,but in practice,some areas'allocated debt limits have deviated from their economic fundamentals.Focusing on the goals of“stabilizing growth”and“preventing risks”,in order to understand the allocation logic of special debt limits more comprehensively and deeply,this article mainly answers three questions:(1)According to the formula disclosed by the Ministry of Finance,to what extent can objective economic factors explain the actual incremental special debt limits at the provincial and prefectural level?(2)In addition to the objective economic factors,how do“debt management performance factors”and“local application factors”,which are related to government behaviors,affect the allocation of special debt limits?(3)What impact has the allocation of debt limits brought,especially for areas with limits exceeding the scale calculated by objective economic factors?Firstly,based on the disclosed formula,this article calculates the explanatory power of objective economic factors for the actual incremental special debt limits.The results show that in 2022,for example,at the provincial level,objective economic factors can explain about 73%of incremental special debt limits,while at the prefectural level,this proportion is only about 63%.Then,this article manually collected the data on the debt limits in prefecture-level cities from 2017 to 2022.Using a twoway fixed effect model,we empirically examine the impact of debt management performance factors and local application factors on the allo

关 键 词：地方政府债务管理 专项债务限额 稳增长 防风险 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]