跨国相关的外部需求不确定性与企业出口质量——基于需求侧增质成本的视角  

Spatial Correlated External Demand Uncertainty and Export Quality:From the Perspective of Demand-Side Quality Improvement Cost

作　　者：钱学锋[1] 方明朋 QIAN Xue-feng;FANG Ming-peng(School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2023年第11期100-117,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球价值链背景下国际贸易政策体系调整与中国应对策略研究”(批准号21&ZD083)。

摘　　要：本文拓展了一个包含跨国相关的需求波动与企业内生质量决策的贸易模型,分析了外部需求不确定性给企业出口增质造成的困境,并明确了相应的施策应对路径。首先,理论分析与简约式估计发现:对于风险厌恶企业,虽然提升出口质量既能稳定需求波动又能提高需求水平,但跨国相关的外部需求不确定性将总出口利润的波动转化为企业决策的额外成本,抵消了稳需作用所产生的增质收益,导致外部需求不确定性阻碍了企业提升出口质量。其次,经测算,由外部需求不确定性引发的增质成本中,来自跨国相关特征的成分占40.15%,忽略跨国相关特征将低估企业的总增质成本。为进一步考察总增质成本低估所产生的影响,本文借助结构式估计发现,移除外部需求不确定性的跨国相关特征后,总增质成本的下降将使一国的平均出口质量上升84.50%。最后,考虑外部需求环境的跨国相关特征,对增质政策的反事实模拟显示:从需求侧提高质量的稳需效应能在直接促进企业提升出口质量的同时,进一步增强与降成本相关的供给侧政策的增质效果,并通过稳定出口利润、优化贸易利得等方式实现外贸的保稳提质。Relying on a robust external demand,China's export has experienced vigorous development over the past few decades.However,the long-standing issue of improving export quality remains challenging.As the external demand environment deteriorates rapidly,uncertainty and instability increase significantly,further highlighting the challenges in improving the product quality of trade.Against this backdrop,it becomes imperative to clarify the interactive relationship between external demand uncertainty and export quality,identify bottlenecks for firms to autonomously improve product quality in a complex external environment,and specify the strategies for quality improvement.This paper constructs a trade model that includes spatial correlated demand uncertainty and firm's endogenous quality decision.Based on this model,we find that firstly,for risk-averse firms,spatial correlated demand uncertainty transforms the volatility of total export profits into additional costs for enterprise decisions.This offsets the quality improvement benefits caused by demand stabilization,hindering firms from improving export quality.Secondly,calculations show that the component of quality improvement costs arising from spatial correlation accounts for 40.15%.Ignoring these features underestimates the total cost of quality improvement.Through structural estimation based on extended theoretical model,it is found that removing spatial correlation features of external demand uncertainty will reduce quality improvement costs,leading to an 84.50% increase in a country's average export quality.Finally,a counterfactual simulation of quality improvement policies shows that enhancing the match between export products and consumer demand from the demand side not only directly promotes firms to improve quality of export product but also strengthens the quality improvement effects of supply-side policies related to cost reduction.The possible marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,unlike most existing studies focusing on determined a

关 键 词：外需不确定性 跨国相关性 出口质量 需求侧政策 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]