经济新常态下我国滑雪旅游产业高质量发展研究——基于3个雪季的数据预测及市场细分  

High-Quality Development of Ski Tourism Industry under New Normal of China’s Economy-Data Prediction and Market Segmentation Based on Three Snow Seasons

作　　者：李树旺 李京律[1,2,3] 杨抒奕 梁媛 LI Shuwang;LI Jinglyu;YANG Shuyi;LIANG Yuan(P.E.Dept.,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Humanistic Beijing(Humanistic Olympics)Research Center,Beijing 100872,China;School of Sports Industries,Renmin University of China(Zhengding Campus),Zhengding 058000,China;School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;College of P.E.and Sports,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学体育部,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人文北京(人文奥运)研究中心,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学体育产业研究院(正定),河北正定050800 [4]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872 [5]北京师范大学体育与运动学院,北京100875

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2024年第1期1-12,29,共13页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目“2022年北京冬奥会社会参与研究”(19JDYTB008)。

摘　　要：北京冬奥会的成功举办推动我国冰雪运动跨越式发展,民众对冰雪运动体验品质的要求随着冰雪产业加速崛起而不断迭代升级,如何坚持供需两端发力、释放良性消费潜力成为后续相关工作的核心命题。为此,通过线上线下相结合的方式,对北京市周边8个滑雪场的1177名滑雪旅游者进行了连续三年的系列深度调查。针对行为意向作用机制开展两个关键研究,旨在探讨提升滑雪旅游者行为意向、激发滑雪旅游者内在驱力的策略。研究一以计划行为理论为视角,探讨行为态度、主观规范和感知行为控制对冬奥前、中、后不同时期滑雪旅游者行为意向的影响程度及差异。研究二是在研究一的基础上,融入游憩专业化理论视角,对后冬奥时期滑雪旅游者进行市场细分,并进一步比较不同细分市场群体间滑雪旅游行为意向的差异。研究发现:(1)相较于主观规范和感知行为控制,滑雪旅游者的行为态度是正向影响其行为意向更关键的因素且在后冬奥时期的表现更为突出;(2)依据游憩专业化三个子维度(认知、情感、行为),可以有效细分后冬奥时期滑雪旅游者;拥有不同游憩专业化程度的滑雪旅游者,在滑雪旅游行为意向上具有显著差异。鉴于此,研究构建较为全面的滑雪旅游者个体行为预测分析通道,进而提出推动我国滑雪旅游产业高质量发展的对策,驱动滑雪旅游产业成为我国扩内需、促消费、稳增长的新兴动力,实现冰雪运动可持续发展目标。The successful hosting of the Beijing Winter Olympics has promoted the leapfrog development of ice and snow sports in China,and the public’s demands for quality ice and snow sports experience are constantly iterated and upgraded with the accelerated rise of the ice and snow industry.General Secretary Xi Jinping’s speech at the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 12th,2023,pointed out the direction for the high-quality development of the ice and snow economy which has broad market value and development prospects.How to adhere to the dual forces of supply and demand and unleash the potential for healthy consumption has become the core proposition of subsequent related work.Therefore,this study conducted a series of in-depth surveys on 1177 skiing tourists from 8 ski resorts around Beijing for three consecutive years,using a combination of online and offline methods.Through two key studies on the mechanism of behavioral intention,strategies to enhance skiing tourists’behavioral intention and stimulate their intrinsic drive were proposed.Study 1 explored the extent and differences in the influence of attitude towards the behavior,subjective norms,and perceived behavioral control on the skiing tourists’behavioral intention in different periods before,during,and after the Winter Olympics under theory of planned behavior.Based on Study 1,Study 2 integrated the theoretical perspective of recreation specialization to segment the market of skiing tourists in the post-Winter Olympics period,and further compared the differences in ski touring behavioral intentions among different segmented market groups.It was found that compared to subjective norms and perceived behavioral control,skiing tourists’behavioral attitude was a more critical factor that positively affects their behavioral intention,which was more prominent in the post-Winter Olympics period.Based on the three sub-dimensions of recreation specialization(cognitive,affective,and behavioral),skiing tourists in the post-Winter Olympics period c

关 键 词：后冬奥时期 滑雪旅游产业 计划行为理论 行为意向 游憩专业化 市场细分 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]