房价上涨是否推迟了初婚年龄?——基于CGSS数据的实证分析  

Do Rising Housing Prices Delay the Age at First Marriage?An Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS Data

作　　者：刘金山[1] 杜林 LIU Jinshan;DU Lin(School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期108-116,共9页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(72034002)。

摘　　要：“房价”与“婚姻”是大众热议的民生问题。构建婚姻决策理论模型,探讨房价对结婚率的影响,基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,考察房价上涨对居民初婚年龄的影响。结果表明:房价每上涨1%,居民的平均初婚年龄增加1.108岁;房价上涨对女性初婚年龄的推迟效应大于男性,对城镇地区居民初婚年龄的推迟效应大于农村地区居民,对经济欠发达地区居民初婚年龄的推迟效应大于发达地区居民;家庭经济水平对农村地区男性的初婚年龄有显著负向影响,个体受教育程度对欠发达地区居民的初婚年龄有显著负向影响。“Housing prices”and“marriage”are hotly debated livelihood issues.This paper constructs a theoretical model of marriage decisions to examine the impact of housing prices on marriage rates,and explores the impact of rising housing prices on the age at first marriage of residents based on the data from Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS).The results show that the average age at first marriage increases by 1.108 years when the housing price rises.As for the delay effect of rising housing prices on the age at first marriage,the paper finds that it is greater on women than on men,greater on the residents in urban areas than on those in rural areas,and greater on the residents in less developed areas than on those in developed areas.In addition,family economic level has a significant negative effect on the age at first marriage of rural men,and individual education level has a significant negative effect on the age at first marriage of residents in less developed areas.

关 键 词：房价 初婚年龄 推迟效应 性别差异 城乡差异 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]