中国现代能源体系建设进程评估  

Evaluation on the Construction Process of Modern Energy Systems in China

作　　者：朱广岩 张小妹 严晓辉 高丹[6] 呼和涛力 程婉静 田亚峻 谢克昌 ZHU Guangyan;ZHANG Xiaomei;YAN Xiaohui;GAO Dan;HUHE Taoli;CHENG Wanjing;TIAN Yajun;XIE Kechang(Extended Energy Big Data and Strategy Research Center,Qingdao Inst.of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technol.,Chinese Academy of Sci.,Qingdao 266101,China;Shandong Energy Inst.,Qingdao 266101,China;Qingdao New Energy Shandong Lab.,Qingdao 266101,China;School of Chemical Eng.,Univ.of Chinese Academy of Sci.,Beijing 100049,China;Sci.and Technol.Dept.,China Energy Investment Corp.,Beijing 100013,China;School of Energy,Power and Mechanical Eng.,North China Electric Power Univ.,Beijing 102206,China;Inst.of Urban&Rural Mining Research,Changzhou Univ.,Changzhou 213164,China;Inst.of Quantitative&Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sci.,Beijing 100732,China;Chinese Academy of Eng.,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院青岛生物能源与过程研究所泛能源大数据与战略研究中心,山东青岛266101 [2]山东能源研究院,山东青岛266101 [3]青岛新能源山东省实验室,山东青岛266101 [4]中国科学院大学化学工程学院,北京100049 [5]国家能源投资集团有限责任公司科技部,北京100013 [6]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,北京102206 [7]常州大学城乡矿山研究院,江苏常州213164 [8]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [9]中国工程院,北京100088

出　　处：《工程科学与技术》2024年第1期206-217,共12页Advanced Engineering Sciences

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目(2022–XZ–33)。

摘　　要：能源是国家经济社会发展的基石,构建现代能源体系对保障国家能源安全,如期实现“双碳”目标,推动经济社会高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于清洁、低碳、安全、高效4个维度构建了现代能源指标体系,运用序关系分析法定量评价中国现代能源体系的历史进程,并进行国内外横向对比。结果表明:过去11年(2010—2020年),中国推动能源革命进程成效显著,2020年达到了世界平均水平,在全球76个主要经济体中排名第38位,落后于欧盟、美国、日本等发达经济体,领先于俄罗斯、印度等发展中经济体。中国高效指数排名明显落后于发达经济体,表明中国能效提升方面空间巨大,也说明更要重视科技投入;中国的安全指数排名比较靠前,证明了中国煤炭在能源安全中的“压舱石”地位,但是同样的原因导致中国的低碳指数相对落后;过去10年,中国能源清洁利用成效显著,但是排名整体靠后,说明中国能源的清洁开发利用依然任重道远。其中,中国能源结构指标、碳排放系列指标、能源强度指标是影响中国综合指数水平的关键性指标,尤其是能源强度指标。因此,首先,未来要加快构建以可再生能源为主、以化石能源为辅的现代能源体系;其次,新能源与低碳技术达到体量尚需时日,长期以来,煤炭支撑中国经济和社会较快发展,是中国能源安全保障的压舱石和稳定器,煤炭清洁高效利用仍需加强,而实现了清洁高效利用的煤炭就是能源清洁;最后,能源转型的关键是优化能源结构,要多能互补,集成热、电、气、冷,提升火电机组灵活性,而在终端消费方面提高能源效率,降低能源强度,实施电能替代,形成以电为中心的能源消费格局。Objective:Accelerating the construction of modern energy systems plays an important role in building energy power,guaranteeing national energy security,helping to realize the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,and supporting the high-quality development of the economy and society.However,there is no quantifiable methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the construction of modern energy systems.Carrying out quantitative research on the construction process of modern energy systems is of great significance for understanding the construction process of China’s modern energy systems,providing quantitative guidance for the construction of the country’s modern energy systems,and helping China’s energy revolution,“dual-carbon”strategy,and even the construction of new energy systems.Methods:The study adopts a systematic analysis method to construct a modern energy systems evaluation index system with four dimensions,namely,clean,low-carbon,safe,and efficient,quantitatively assesses the historical progress of China’s modern energy systems construction and conducts comparative analyses with 76 countries around the world,to locate the level of China’s modern energy systems construction from different perspectives.Results and Discussion:In the past ten years,China’s modern energy comprehensive index has shown a continuous upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 2.41%,and reached the world average level in 2020,ranking 38th among 76 major economies in the world,indicating that China’s efforts to promote the energy revolution have been effective,and the level of construction of the modern energy systems has been steadily improved.Further analysis shows that China’s energy structure indicators,carbon emission series indicators,and energy intensity indicators are key indicators affecting the level of China’s comprehensive index.China’s efficiency index ranking(42nd)is significantly behind developed economies,from the point of view of specific high efficiency indicators,energy in

关 键 词：现代能源体系指数 清洁 低碳 安全 高效 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]