区域水资源压力指数评估及其适应性分析  

Evaluation and Adaptability Analysis on Water Resources Stress Index

作　　者：刘开颜 付湘[1,2] 刘双郡 LIU Kaiyan;FU Xiang;LIU Shuangjun(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Water System Science of Sponge City,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430074 [2]武汉大学海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水文》2023年第6期28-32,39,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51979199,U21A2002)。

摘　　要：水资源短缺带来水资源压力,制约区域社会经济持续发展。深入探讨水量型水资源压力指数、水质型水资源压力指数和综合水资源压力指数的概念内涵,依据区域需水量预测结果,提出基于水资源贡献率和需水率的改进破产分配方法,对传统破产分配方法进行适应性改进。以广州市为研究区域,应用结果表明:(1)广州市未来阶段(2021-2030年)与当前阶段(2011-2020年)相比,总需水量增加3.13%,其中农业增加0.53%,工业减少30.19%,生活增加57.51%。(2)传统破产分配方法仅考虑分区需水量对水资源进行分配;适应性分配方法综合考虑地区水资源贡献率和需水率,依据总缺水量对水资源进行分配。(3)适应性分配方法下广州市综合水资源压力减少14.3%,综合考虑水量、水质和生态,其明显优于传统破产分配方法。Water shortage generates water resources stress and restricts the sustainable development of society.The concepts of quantity-induced water stress,quality-induced water stress and comprehensive water stress were clarified.Based on the prediction results of water demand,the improved bankruptcy method,which considers both water distribution and water demand,was proposed as an adaptive countermeasure to release water stress.Taking Guangzhou as a case study,the results show that:(1)Compared with the current period(2011-2020),the total water demand of Guangzhou in the future period(2021-2030)could increase by 3.13%,in which the agricultural demand by 0.53%,the industrial demand by 30.19%,and the domestic demand by 57.51%.(2)The traditional bankruptcy allocation method only considers districts'water demand;however,the adaptive allocation method considers water resources contribution and water demand of every district,and makes rational allocation according to the total water shortage.(3)The comprehensive water stress of Guangzhou reduces by 14.3%under the adaptive allocation method.Considering water quantity,water quality and ecology,the adaptive allocation method is superior to the traditional bankruptcy method.

关 键 词：水资源管理 水资源压力 破产分配方法 适应性分析 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]