气候变化对延伸期预报的影响  

Impact of Climate Change on Extended Range Forecast

作　　者：蔡芗宁 马杰 刘晓波 关月 CAI Xiangning;MA Jie;LIU Xiaobo;GUAN Yue(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第1期12-19,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金——气象联合基金项目(U2142207);气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSZ002、22NLTSZ004);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J010)。

摘　　要：10~30 d时效的延伸期预报,作为无缝隙预报预测体系中至关重要的一环,连接着天气预报和短期气候预测。受不断加剧的气候变化的影响,延伸期预报将面临更为重大的挑战。首先概述国内外延伸期预报现状,然后分析了全球气候变化对极端天气气候事件分布特征、关键环流系统可预报性等方面的影响,发现气候变化将导致延伸期预报难度加大、需求更加旺盛,同时也更加突显延伸期预报在防灾减灾方面的作用。进一步展望延伸期预报将面临的新挑战以及未来业务发展的新动向,提出了适应气候变化的应对措施和建议,如大力发展数值预报模式、深入开展延伸期预报机理研究、大力发展动力—统计相结合的预报方法以及尝试多学科交叉协作等。Climate change has a significant impact on the global ecological environment and human activities.The extended range forecast with a time limit of 10 to 30 days,as an important part of the seamless forecast system,connects weather forecast and short-term climate forecast.Due to the increasing impact of climate change,extended range forecast will face even greater challenges.Therefore,this paper starts with an overview of the current situation of extended-range forecast both domestically and internationally,analyzing the impact of global climate change on the distribution characteristics of extreme weather and climate events,as well as the predictability of key circulation systems.It is found that climate change will lead to increase the difficulty and demand for extended range forecast,and also highlight the role of extended-range forecast in disaster prevention and mitigation.Further outlook on the new challenges that extended range forecast will face and new trends in future business development,and propose response measures and suggestions to adapt to climate change,such as vigorously developing numerical forecast models,conducting in-depth research on extended range forecast mechanisms,vigorously developing forecast methods that combine dynamics and statistics,and attempting interdisciplinary cross-collaboration.

关 键 词：气候变化 延伸期预报 可预报性 极端天气 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]