中国地球系统模式对全球地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射的模拟效果评估  

Performance Evaluation of Simulating Global Surface Downward Shortwave and Longwave Radiation by Chinese Earth System Models

作　　者：张珂菡 万梓文 刘俨志 王伟[1,2] ZHANG Kehan;WAN Ziwen;LIU Yanzhi;WANG Wei(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink,China Meteorological Administration(ECSS-CMA),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Lin'an Meteorological Bureau of Hangzhou City,Hangzhou 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学中国气象局生态系统碳源汇开放重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]临安区气象局,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第1期59-65,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607202)。

摘　　要：以云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES)数据集为准,量化了中国地球系统模式对地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射时空变化的模拟性能,明确了多模式间模拟结果存在不确定性的区域。结果表明:中国模式均能模拟出北半球地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射“夏高冬低”的季节变化特征。陆地上,中国模式对两个辐射分量月均值的模拟结果与CERES相当,在海洋上低于CERES结果。中国模式能模拟出地表入射短波辐射下降、大气逆辐射上升的年际变化趋势。对于2001—2014年均值,中国模式模拟的地表入射短波辐射在海洋和陆地上较CERES分别偏低3.3和3.0 W·m^(-2),模拟的大气逆辐射在海洋上与CERES结果相当,在陆地上较CERES低1.3 W·m^(-2)。除南北纬30°附近之外,中国模式在其他纬度均低估地表入射短波辐射,以热带和北极最为明显。模式对大气逆辐射的模拟偏差呈纬向波动特征,模拟误差大值出现在高大山脉处。中国模式模拟地表入射短波辐射不确定性极大的区域分布在热带雨林和南极洲沿海,模拟大气逆辐射不确定性极大的区域分布在格林兰岛、青藏高原、安第斯山脉和南极洲沿海。With reference to clouds and the earth’s radiant energy system(CERES)dataset,simulation of historical surface downward shortwave and longwave radiation by Chinese earth system models from coupled model intercomparion project phase 6(CMIP6)were evaluated.Regions with high inter-model variability were also identified.The results show that Chinese models can capture the seasonal variations of the two surface radiation components in the northern hemisphere with high values in summer and low values in winter.Ensemble monthly means of two radiation components from Chinese models agree well with CERES counterparts over land,but bias low over ocean.Chinese models can also produce the decreased surface downward shortwave radiation and increased longwave radiation at interannual time scale.Averaged over values from 2001 to 2014,downward shortwave radiation from Chinese models is 3.3 W·m^(-2) and 3.0 W·m^(-2) lower than CERES dataset over ocean and land,respectively.Chinese models show similar downward longwave radiation to CERES dataset over ocean,but bias low by 1.3 W·m^(-2) over land.Chinese models overestimate surface downward shortwave radiation around 30°latitudes,but underestimation is found in other latitudes,especially in tropics and north polar regions.Simulation bias in downward longwave radiation fluctuates with latitudes with large simulation bias around high mountains.Tropical forests and Antarctic oceans are noteworthy regions with extreme large inter-model variability for simulating downward shortwave radiation by Chinese models.Greenland,Tibet Plateau,Andes Mountains and Antarctic oceans are regions with extreme large inter-model variability for simulating downward longwave radiation by Chinese models.

关 键 词：耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6) 中国地球系统模式 地表入射短波辐射 大气逆辐射 云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES) 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]