劳动力老化如何影响劳动生产率?——基于中国城市面板数据的分析  

How Does Aging of Labor Force Impact Labor Productivity?:Analysis Based on Panel Data of Chinese Cities

作　　者：成前[1] 陆杰华 CHENG Qian;LU Jiehua(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;China Society and Development Research Center/Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]北京大学中国社会与发展研究中心研究院/社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与经济》2024年第1期34-46,共13页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“人口发展新格局下劳动力老化特征及其社会经济影响研究”(22CRK001)。

摘　　要：中国自2000年步入老龄化社会以来,人口老龄化程度持续加深,作为社会经济基本要素,劳动力老化使得社会经济发展面临一系列新挑战与新机遇。为探索劳动力老化对劳动生产率的影响机理,基于2000—2020年中国城市面板数据,在借鉴既往研究的基础上,利用长差分模型实证分析劳动力老化对劳动生产率的影响。研究发现,劳动力老化与劳动生产率之间呈负相关关系;进一步从要素投入和技术进步两个方面考察劳动力老化对劳动生产率的作用机制后发现,劳动力老化主要通过影响技术进步与劳动就业作用于劳动生产率;此外,劳动技能提升、公共财政投入等公共政策可以有效降低劳动力老化对劳动生产率的消极影响;最后,本研究认为,若想有效应对这一问题就要加强对生育问题的关注,要从劳动技能提升、公共财政投入等方面制定专门且有效的公共政策,并在具体实施时,注重相关政策向中西部地区、二线及以下城市等特定地区倾斜。上述这些研究结论有助于从劳动力老化视角解释中国城市劳动生产率的表现差异,对于推动人口发展新格局下的经济高质量发展具有重要意义。Since China entered an aging society in 2000,the degree of population aging has also continued to deepen.As a basic element of the social economy,the aging of labor force has faced a series of new challenges and opportunities for social and economic development.Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of aging of labor force on labor productivity by using a long difference model on the basis of previous study.The study shows that there is a negative relationship between the aging of labor force and the labor productivity.Furthermore,after examining the mechanism of the effect of aging of labor force on labor productivity from the aspects of factor input and technological progress,it finds that the aging of labor force has an effect on labor productivity mainly through affecting technological progress and labor employment.In addition,public policies such as labor skills improvement and public financial investment can effectively reduce the negative impact of aging of labor force on labor productivity.Finally,this study suggests that in order to effectively address this issue,it is necessary to strengthen attention to the fertility issue.Meanwhile,we need to formulate specialized and effective public policies from aspects such as labor skills improvement and public financial investment,and in specific implementation,attention should be paid to tilting relevant policies towards specific areas such as the central and western regions,second-tier cities and below.These research conclusions are helpful to explain the difference of productivity in Chinese cities from the perspective of aging of labor force,which are of great significance to promote the high-quality economic development under the new pattern of population development.

关 键 词：劳动力老化 劳动生产率 公共政策 高质量发展 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学] F249.22