服务业进出口、OFDI和全要素生产率的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

The Dynamic Relationship Between Import and Export of Service Industry,OFDI and Total Factor Productivity:An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：甘志霞[1] 李松洁 GAN Zhixia;LI Songjie(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2024年第1期87-93,共7页Technology and Innovation Management

摘　　要：研究服务业贸易、投资与服务业之间的影响关系,对提升我国服务行业国际竞争力、促进其高质量发展具有重要意义。论文使用我国2000—2021年数据,构建VAR模型对服务业进出口、服务业对外直接投资(OFDI)和全要素生产率的动态交互关系进行实证分析。研究结果显示,服务业进出口对服务业对外直接投资具有正相关关系,且长期支持效果明显;服务业进出口对OFDI、全要素生产率提升具有促进作用;在短期内,全要素生产率与OFDI之间存在双向促进作用,从长期来看则存在一定负向影响。基于实证研究结论,文中提出制定政策鼓励服务企业参与国际化竞争、发挥服务业进出口对OFDI的促进效应、提升服务企业自主创新能力等相关对策建议。Studying the influence relationship between service trade,investment and service industry plays an important role in enhancing the international competitiveness of China’s service industry and promoting its high-quality development.Using China’s data from 2000 to 2021,this paper constructs a VAR model to empirically analyze the dynamic interaction relationship between import and export of service industry,outward direct investment(OFDI)and total factor productivity of service industry.The results show that the import and export of the service industry has a positive correlation with the outward direct investment of the service industry,and the long-term support effect is obvious;that the import and export of service industry has a promoting effect on OFDI and total factor productivity improvement;and that in the short term,there is a two-way promotion between total factor productivity and OFDI,but in the long run,there is a certain negative impact.Based on the empirical research conclusions,this paper put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions such as formulating policies to encourage service enterprises to participate in international competition,give full play to the promotion effect of service industry import and export on OFDI,and improve the independent innovation ability of service enterprises.

关 键 词：服务业进出口 服务业对外直接投资 全要素生产率 VAR模型 动态互动关系 逆向技术溢出效应 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] F832.6F125