承接产业转移示范区的政策效应评估——基于环境与经济二维视角的考察  

Assessment of policy effects in the industrial transfer undertaking demonstration area:exploration from both environmental and economic perspectives

作　　者：任亚运 李婉婷 张锟澎 REN Yayun;LI Wanting;ZHANG Kunpeng(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;School of Accounting,Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]上海立信会计金融学院会计学院,上海201620

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2023年第6期16-28,共13页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(21CJY028)。

摘　　要：引导国内产业转移的合理推进对畅通国内大循环具有重要的现实意义。在产业转移的过程中,承接地经济发展往往被视为首要目标,但产业转移带来的环境问题也不容忽视。在经济发展和环境保护之间取得平衡是实现可持续发展的关键一环。将国家级承接产业转移示范区政策视为一项准自然实验,基于2003—2020年中国268个地级市面板数据,采用多期双重差分法综合评估承接产业转移示范区政策对承接地经济和环境的影响。研究发现:(1)承接产业转移示范区政策显著促进了承接地的经济发展,但同时也导致了承接地碳排放的短期增加;(2)承接产业转移示范区政策在长期内对承接地经济的促进效应持续增强,而对碳排放的影响逐渐减弱;(3)承接产业转移示范区政策主要通过产业结构和城镇化水平两个渠道对承接地的经济与环境产生影响。研究结论为协同经济发展与环境保护的政策制定提供了有力参考与决策支持。The rational promotion of domestic industrial transfer facilitates the smooth operation of domestic circulation.During the industrial transfer process,the economic development of recipient areas is often emphasized.Nonetheless,the accompanying environmental concerns cannot be overlooked.Achieving a balance between economic growth and environmental protection is pivotal for sustainable development.This paper treats the policy of the industrial transfer undertaking demonstration area(ITUDA)at the national level as a quasi-natural experiment.Using panel data from 268 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2020,a multi-period difference-in-differences approach is employed to assess its impacts on recipient areas.The findings suggest the following.(1)The policy of the ITUDA considerably promotes economic development in recipient areas but leads to short-term increase in carbon dioxide emissions.(2)The ITUDA policy continues to enhance the economy of recipient areas in the long term,but its influence on carbon emissions is diminishing.(3)The ITUDA policy mainly affects the economy and environment of recipient areas through industrial structure and urbanization levels.This study provides a powerful reference and decision support for policy formulation on synergistic economic development and environmental protection.

关 键 词：承接产业转移示范区 环境经济效应 产业结构 城镇化水平 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F205