计及随机变量相关性的多点线性化概率潮流计算  

Multi-spot Linearized Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Considering Correlation Between Random Variables

作　　者：叶希[1] 王彦沣 黄杨[1] 廖帮昆 欧阳雪彤 文云峰 YE Xi;WANG Yanfeng;HUANG Yang;LIAO Bangkun;OUYANG Xuetong;WEN Yunfeng(State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company,Chengdu 610041,China;New Technology Engineering Research Centre of Ministry of Education for Power Transmission&Distribution(Hunan University),Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]国网四川省电力公司,成都610041 [2]输变电新技术教育部工程研究中心(湖南大学),长沙410082

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2024年第1期37-45,共9页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52077066);国网四川省电力公司科学技术项目(521999220001)。

摘　　要：为满足考虑源荷双侧强不确定性场景的“双高”电力系统潮流分析计算需求,提出一种新型的概率潮流计算方法。基于核密度估计建立输入随机变量的概率分布模型,构建Copula函数刻画多维随机输入变量间的相关性,获取更加符合系统实际运行情况的样本数据。引入多点线性化潮流计算方法,在降低非线性潮流计算量的同时减小单点线性化潮流计算的截断误差。在IEEE-30节点系统上进行算例测试,验证所提方法的准确性和有效性。To accommodate the power flow analysis and calculation requirements for power systems with high uncertain⁃ties in source and load on both sides with high shares of renewable energy and power electronics,a novel probabilistic power flow calculation method is proposed in this paper.A probability distribution model of random input variables is es⁃tablished based on kernel density estimation,and the Copula function is constructed to describe the correlation between multi-dimensional random input variables and obtain the sample data,which is more in line with the actual situation of system operation.The multi-spot linearized power flow calculation method is introduced to reduce the amount of nonlin⁃ear power flow calculations while decreasing truncation errors in single-spot linearized power flow calculation.Finally,the test result of an IEEE 30-bus system verifies the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛模拟 概率潮流 核密度估计 多点线性化 COPULA理论 新能源 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]