农业、农村问题与叙利亚危机的爆发  

Agriculture,Rural Development,and the Outbreak of the Syrian Crisis

作　　者：李海鹏[1] Li Haipeng

机构地区：[1]北京大学外国语学院

出　　处：《阿拉伯研究论丛》2022年第2期191-207,共17页Arab Studies

摘　　要：农业和农村问题是理解叙利亚危机爆发的经济背景不可或缺的视角。延续数十年的国家计划农业发展模式的内在缺陷、粗放型资源利用模式对资源的消耗,以及2005年后经济自由化加速时期的政策调整对农业部门的冲击,共同构成了农业发展停滞、农村社会凋敝的政策和制度性内因。周期性气候变化、政府危机应对不利等内外部因素,仅仅暴露了既有农业发展模式长期存在的问题。农业和农村问题无法直接解释危机的爆发,却为危机最终爆发提供了潜在的参与者和动能,并影响了危机的走势。妥善管理农村地区、恢复农业生产,将成为叙利亚政府重建稳定政治秩序的重要前提。Agriculture and rural issues constitute essential perspectives for understanding the economic background of the outbreak of the Syrian crisis.In contrast to the ecological interpretation of the issue,this article argues that several policy and institutional factors,including the inherent shortcomings of the decades-old statist agricultural development model,the mismanagement of agricultural resources caused by an inefficient resource utilization model,and the impact of policy adjustments on the agricultural sector during the post-2005 economic liberalization process,lie behind the stagnation of agricultural development and rural social decline on the eve of the 2011 uprising.The internal and external factors,such as cyclical climate change and inadequate governmental response,only exposed the long-term problems of the existing agricultural development model.The issues of agriculture and rural areas cannot directly explain the outbreak of the crisis,but have created potential participants,created momentum,and influenced the trajectory of the crisis.Properly managing rural areas and restoring agricultural production will become an important prerequisite for the Syrian government to rebuild a stable political order.

关 键 词：叙利亚危机 农业 合作社模式 水土资源 经济自由化 

分 类 号：F337.6[经济管理—产业经济] D815.4[政治法律—国际关系] D737.6[政治法律—政治学]