广东人口规模预测及其对经济增长的影响研究  

A Study of the Prediction of the Population Size of Guangdong and the Effect on its Economic Growth

作　　者：吴海民[1] 于世敏 WU Hai-min;YU Shi-min

机构地区：[1]五邑大学经济管理学院,广东江门529020

出　　处：《五邑大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期43-47,93,共6页Journal of Wuyi University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“破解中国工业增加值率的递减之谜:成因、机理与对策研究”(批准号:19YJA790091)之阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：以1995-2021年广东省常住人口数据为基础,采用多种模型对2025-2040年广东常住人口规模进行了综合预测。利用人口惯性因子、政策调整因子、经济发展因子对预测结果进行修正,广东常住人口规模在2040年将达到1725842万人。计量实证分析表明,广东常住人口对经济增长存在显著的促进作用,其发挥作用的渠道既包括供给侧的劳动就业和人力资本,也包括需求侧的消费与投资。政策上应注重吸引外来人口持续流入,并将现有人口优势转化为经济增长优势,从供给侧与需求端双管齐下,充分释放人口红利。A moderate population size is an important prerequisite for high-quality economic development.Based on the data on the resi-dent population in Guangdong Province from 1995 to 2021,this paper comprehensively predicts the size of the resident population in Guang-dong Province from 2025 to 2040 by using various models.Using population inertia factors,policy adjustment factors and economic develop-ment factors to revise the forecast results,we predict the permanent population of Guangdong will reach 172,584,200 in 2040.An empirical analysis shows that the permanent population of Guangdong has a significant role in promoting economic growth in terms of employment and human capital on the supply side,and consumption and investment on the demand side.Policies should focus on attracting the continuous inflow of external population,transforming the existing population advantages into economic growth advantages,and fully releasing the demo-graphic dividend from both the supply side and the demand side.

关 键 词：常住人口 预测模型 修正因子 经济增长 供给侧 

分 类 号：C924.25[社会学—人口学]