长株潭都市圈城市空间演化情景预测及其耕地影响分析  

Scenario Prediction of Urban Spatial Evolution and Its Impact on Arable Land in Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Region,China

作　　者：贺城墙 王盼成[1,2] 曾永年[1,2] HE Chengqiang;WANG Pancheng;ZENG Yongnian(School of Geoscience and Info-physics,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;Central for Geomatics and Sustainable Development Research,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,长沙410083 [2]中南大学空间信息技术与可持续发展研究中心,长沙410083

出　　处：《山地学报》2023年第5期689-700,共12页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42171364)。

摘　　要：长江经济带建设是新时期中国经济社会发展的重大战略之一。城市群国土空间的合理规划与科学管理对长江经济带健康、可持续发展具有重要的意义。位居长江中游的长株潭都市圈经历了快速的城镇化过程,城市扩展对区域资源与环境产生了深刻的影响,但目前该区域国土空间格局及变化预测的研究不足,城市空间扩展对耕地保护的影响尚不明确。本文基于极限学习的城市扩展元胞自动机模型,在自然增长、规划发展、生态优先三种城市发展情景下,模拟预测了2030年长株潭都市圈城市空间格局,分析了城市空间演化对耕地面积及其空间分布的影响。研究结果表明:(1)在自然增长、规划发展、生态优先三种城市发展情景下,2030年长株潭都市圈建设用地将分别达到1295.08、1166.44、1104.78 km^(2)。在三种城市发展情境下,长株潭都市圈建设用地均以边缘增长为主,向外扩展延伸,城市一体化趋势显著;(2)在自然增长、规划发展、生态优先三种情景下,2030年长株潭都市圈耕地将分别减少到2088.30、2134.94、2199.45 km^(2)。城市建设用地的扩展导致区域耕地面积的减少,从粮食安全与可持续发展的角度,生态优先的发展模式是未来长株潭都市圈优选的发展模式。研究结论可为长株潭都市圈城市空间规划与管理提供科学依据,为长江经济带城市生态安全和可持续发展提供参考。The construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the major strategies for China s economic and social development in the new period.The rational planning and scientific management of land space of urban agglomerations are of great significance to a healthy and sustainable development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan region has experienced rapid urbanization,and urban expansion has had a profound impact on regional resources and the environment;however,there was insufficient knowledge of the spatial pattern of land-use in the region,nor any prediction of urban spatial pattern changes,and the impact of urban spatial expansion on the protection of arable land was yet unclear.In this study,it predicted the urban spatial pattern of the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan region in 2030 using a cellular automata model of urban expansion evolved from extreme learning machine model.It analyzed the impacts of urban spatial evolution on the arable land area and its spatial distribution under three scenarios of urban expansion,namely,natural growth,planned development,and ecological priority.It found that(1)under the three scenarios of natural growth,planned development,and ecological priority,the urban construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan region would reach 1295.08 km^(2),1166.44 km^(2),1104.78 km^(2) respectively in 2030,respectively.Specifically,from 2010 to 2030,land occupied by urban construction would goes to a corresponding increase by 597.54 km^(2),2134.94 km^(2) and 448.16 km^(2) in the three scenarios.The construction land in the region would be dominated by marginal growth,extending outward,with a significant trend of urban integration.(2)Under the three scenarios of natural growth,planned development,and ecological priority,the arable land in the region would be 2088.30 km^(2),2134.94 km^(2) and 2199.45 km^(2) respectively in 2030.The expansion of urban construction land leads to the reduction in regional arabl

关 键 词：城市空间演化 情景模拟 耕地变化 长株潭都市圈 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F205