乡村振兴背景下区域发展程度预测方法  

A Novel Method for Predicting Regional Development Level under the Background of Rural Revitalization

作　　者：解浩周 刘婧宜 高贤谡 汤梦琪 丁曼 乔晶 XIE Haozhou;LIU Jingyi;GAO Xiansu;TANG Mengqi;DING Man;QIAO Jing(China Mobile Group Design Institute Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国移动通信集团设计院有限公司,北京100080

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第24期148-153,共6页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：为更有针对性地实现乡村振兴战略,制定合理的政策和规划,对各区域发展程度进行研究。依据中国乡村振兴评价指标体系,对乡村振兴评价指标和综合指数进行测度并构建数据集。在区域发展程度预测模型基础上构建置信度评估模型。通过实验验证置信度评估模型对预测模型准确度的提升效果,展示构建模型的有效性和高泛化性,同时用SHAP图分析重要性较高的特征及其对模型输出的贡献,最后在实验结果的基础上提出促进区域发展的对策及建议。In order to achieve targeted rural revitalization strategy and formulate reasonable policies and plans,regional development level was studied.Based on the evaluation index system for rural revitalization in China,a dataset of evaluation indicators and comprehensive indexes for rural revitalization were measured and constructed,and a regional development level prediction model based on confidence assessment was proposed.The effectiveness of the confidence assessment model in improving prediction accuracy is verified on the dataset,demonstrating the validity and high generalization of the model.The SHAP global explanatory diagram is used to analyze the highly important features and their contributions to the model output.Finally,strategies and suggestions are proposed to promote regional development based on the experimental results.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 评价指标体系 机器学习 置信度评估 全局解释 

分 类 号：TU984.1[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]