基于VAR模型的能源消费与废气排放量关系研究——以山西省为例  

Research on the Relationship between Energy Consumption and ExhaustEmissions Based on VAR Model:Taking Shanxi Province as an example

作　　者：杨昆 郝玺龙 刘伟 白羽 YANG Kun;HAO Xilong;LIU Wei;BAI Yu(Shanxi Research Center for Information and Strategic of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省科技情报与战略研究中心,太原030024

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第24期207-213,共7页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：山西省科技战略研究专项(202204031401176)。

摘　　要：为了实现碳中和目标,通过向量自回归(VAR)模型分析能源消费与废气排放量关系,进而提出改变能源生产消费方式的建议。基于山西省2007—2021年煤炭消费量、石油消费量、焦炭消费量和废气排放量数据,通过单位根检验、约翰逊协整检验、建立误差修正模型和VAR模型、Granger因果检验,作出脉冲响应图并进行方差分解,得出山西省煤炭消费量、石油消费量、焦炭消费量和废气排放量的长短期均衡关系和影响力度。研究表明,煤炭消费使废气排放量呈高排放状态,石油消费未曾大的影响废气排放,焦炭消费使废气排放量先升后降。研究提出山西省能源生产消费的节能减排路径,包括应用先进煤化工和煤电技术、开发石油生产消费低碳技术、促进新能源技术的普及和应用、开发能源互联网及绿色金融等新兴产业等。To achieve carbon neutrality goals,the relationship between energy consumption and exhaust emissions through the VAR model is analyzed,and then suggestions are put forward for changing the way of energy production and consumption.Based on the coal consumption,oil consumption,coke consumption and exhaust gas emission data of Shanxi Province from 2007 to 2021,through unit root test,Johnson cointegration test,error correction model and vector autoregression(VAR)model,Granger through causality testing,impulse response diagrams and variance decomposition,the long-and short-term equilibrium relationship and influence of coal consumption,oil consumption,coke consumption and waste gas emissions in Shanxi Province were obtained.The research shows that coal consumption causes exhaust gas emissions to be in a high state,oil consumption has not greatly affected exhaust gas emissions,and coke consumption causes exhaust gas emissions to rise first and then decrease.The energy conservation and emission reduction paths for energy production and consumption in Shanxi Province are proposed,including the application of advanced coal chemical and coal power technologies,the development of low-carbon technologies for oil production and consumption,the promotion of the popularization and application of new energy technologies,and the development of emerging industries such as energy Internet and green finance.

关 键 词：能源消费 VAR模型 煤炭气化燃料电池复合发电 能源互联网 

分 类 号：F06[经济管理—政治经济学]