基于系统动力学的医院建设项目概算影响因素仿真研究  

Study on the Investment Budget Formation and Influence Mechanism of Hospital Construction Project Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：张国宗 牟晓丽 ZHANG Guozong;MU Xiaoli(School of Economics and Management Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102600,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院,北京102600

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2023年第6期74-79,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

摘　　要：为提高医院建设项目投资概算的准确性,将研究视角聚焦在初步设计阶段,基于灰色关联法和系统动力学理论,识别出影响医院概算的关键因素,建立了指标体系和模型。通过因果关系图和流图,揭示了医院建设项目投资概算的形成与影响机制。并以两个案例进行对比分析,验证了模型的有效性和准确性。为医院建设项目的概算编制、投资决策和概算批复提供了新的思路和依据。To improve the accuracy of the investment estimate of hospital construction,this paper focuses on the preliminary design stage,identifies the key factors affecting the hospital's estimate based on the gray correlation method and system dynamics theory,and establishes the index system and model.The causality diagram and flow diagram reveal the formation and influence mechanism of the investment estimate of hospital construction.In this paper,two cases are compared and analyzed to verify the validity and accuracy of the model.This research provides new ideas and bases for the preparation of budget estimates,investment decision-making,and approval of budget estimates for hospital construction projects.

关 键 词：概算模拟 医院建设项目 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]