基于系统风险格局识别的乡村产业韧性布局研究——以大运河天津段乡村为例  

Rural Industry Resilience Layout Based on Systematic Risk Pattern Identification:A Case Study of Villages in Tianjin Section of Grand Canal

作　　者：田健[1,2,3] 曾穗平 TIAN Jian;ZENG Suiping

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院 [2]天津市城市规划学会海岸带与陆海统筹专委会 [3]天津市城市规划学会小城镇与乡村规划专委会 [4]天津城建大学建筑学院 [5]天津市城市规划学会青年工作委员会 [6]天津市城市规划学会生态与韧性规划专委会

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2023年第12期25-32,共8页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“双循环格局下的天津乡村产业风险识别及韧性提升策略研究”(编号:TJGL21-013)。

摘　　要：伴随着城镇化进程不断深入,我国乡村产业自适应、自组织、自协调与自恢复能力持续下降,产业风险“外部胁迫加剧—内生动力弱化—治理机制滞后”等系统化特征凸显,空间异化程度加深。研究提出了基于“风险源—风险受体—风险治理机制”结构的乡村产业系统风险评估方法,通过大运河天津段乡村的多源数据解析,识别乡村产业风险格局特征并提出基于风险治理的乡村产业韧性布局策略。研究表明:大运河天津段乡村产业的系统风险呈现“高低交错+多元驱动”的空间异化特征和“低风险均衡型+单一高风险型+多风险并存型”的聚类规律;近郊乡村风险源压力较大,远郊乡村的风险治理机制建设相对滞后,风险受体状态主要与农作类型、非农经济发展、社会经济组织建设及资源承载能力有关。研究针对风险的空间分异及聚类特征,通过统筹乡村产业的风险源控制、风险受体优化、治理机制建设等路径,提出乡村产业“外源协同—内生培育—机制响应”的系统韧性布局策略,为实现乡村产业系统风险的长效治理提供相关借鉴。Abastract:As urbanization progresses,the self-adaptive,self-organizing,self-coordinating,and self-recovery capabilities of rural industries in China are in decline.The systematic nature of industrial risks is increasingly evident,manifested as a sequence of intensified external stress,diminishing intrinsic strength,and outdated governance mechanisms,leading to a deeper spatial estrangement.This study introduces a risk assessment method tailored to the rural industry system,structured around"risk source,risk acceptor,and risk governance mechanism".Utilizing diverse data from villages in the Tianjin section of the Grand Canal,it delineates the patterns of rural industry risk and advocates for a resilience-oriented strategy in risk governance.The findings indicate that the systematic risks in the Tianjin section present a spatial pattern of alternating high and low risk areas,driven by multiple factors,and adhere to a clustering principle that combines areas of low-risk balance,isolated high-risk zones,and regions where multiple risks coexist.Suburban rural areas are under greater risk source pressure,with their risk governance mechanisms notably underdeveloped.The condition of risk acceptors is chiefly influenced by agricultural types,non-agricultural economic growth,socio-economic organizational development,and resource carrying capacity.Considering the spatial variance and risk clustering,the study suggests a comprehensive strategy for risk management.This encompasses controlling sources of risk across the rural industry,optimizing risk receptors,and developing governance mechanisms.The proposed"exogenous synergy and endogenous nurturing response"system aims to foster resilience in the rural industry,providing a framework for the sustainable management of systemic risks.

关 键 词：乡村产业 系统风险 风险源 风险受体 风险治理 韧性布局 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]