登陆华东台风导致河南暴雨的统计分析  

Statistical Analysis of Rainstorm in Henan Caused by Typhoon Landing in East China

作　　者：谷秀杰[1,2] 王友贺 武文博 苏艳华 王迪[1,2] Gu Xiujie;Wang Youhe;Wu Wenbo;Su Yanhua;Wang Di(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Aviation Meteorological Center of Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation Administration of China,Beijing 100122,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [3]中国民用航空局空中交通管理局航空气象中心,北京100122

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第6期10-16,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-067);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J014);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FP2J2023-076);河南省气象局预报员专项(KY202108)。

摘　　要：利用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心提供的1959—2021年的台风数据和河南省气象信息中心提供的1980—2021年的全国探空数据和河南省降水资料,运用数理统计、天气学分析等方法,对历年登陆华东及其导致河南区域暴雨的台风进行统计。结果表明:1959—2021年年均登陆华东的台风为2.5个,最多年份有6个,最少年份无台风登陆;91.1%的登陆华东的台风集中在7—9月,其中8月的最多,有67个;登陆最早的出现在5月27日,最晚的出现在10月23日。1980—2021年共有105个台风登陆华东,其中有18个台风导致河南出现30个区域暴雨日,单站日降水量超过200 mm的有10个,占区域暴雨日总数的33.3%,最大单站日降水量为商丘站的364 mm,突破建站以来历史极值。18个影响河南的台风登陆点集中在福建、浙江两省及上海市,登陆福建的最多,为11个;登陆后移动方向可归纳为西北转偏北和偏西转向两类路径。暴雨期间高空风场分析显示,台风主要通过低压和倒槽两种形势影响河南。通过对台风登陆时刻及其陆上移动期间的大尺度环流场进行诊断分析,概括出三类天气学概念模型,可为今后预报所用。By using the typhoon data in 19592021 provided by the Tropical Cyclone Data Center of China Meteorological Administration(CMA),the national sounding data and the precipitation data of Henan Province in 19802021 provided by the Henan Meteorological Information Center as well as the methods of mathematical statistics,synoptic analysis and other methods,we statistically analyze the typhoons that landed in East China and brought regional rainstorms to Henan over the past years.The results show that,during 1959 to 2021 there were 2.5 typhoons on average landing in East China every year,with 6 typhoon-landing cases as the most or zero cases as the least in the years;91.1%of the typhoons that landed in East China were concentrated in July-September,of which 67 typhoons were recorded in August,the most among the three months.The earliest landfall date of typhoon was May 27,and the latest date was October 23.From 1980 to 2021,105 typhoons landed in East China,of which 18 caused 30 days of regional rainstorm in Henan,and 10 of them had daily rainfall exceeding 200 mm at a single station,accounting for 33.3%of the total regional rainstorm days.The maximum single station daily rainfall at Shangqiu Station was 364 mm,breaking the historical extreme value since the establishment of the station.18 typhoons that affected Henan landed in Fujian,Zhejiang and Shanghai,with a maximum of 11 in Fujian.The moving direction of typhoons after landfall can be classified into two types:northwest-to-north and westward.The analysis of the upper-altitude wind field during the rainstorm shows that the typhoon mainly affected Henan through the two situations of inverted trough and low pressure.By diagnosing and analyzing the large-scale circulation field at the time of typhoon landfall and its overland movement,we summarize three types of synoptic conceptual models for future forecasting.

关 键 词：台风 气候统计 移动路径 天气学模型 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426.62