ENSO对安徽省旱涝灾害和粮食产量的影响  

Effects of ENSO Event on Drought and Flood Disasters and Grain Yield in Anhui Province

作　　者：陈晓艺[1,2,3,4] 姚筠 王晓东[3,4,5] 张宏群 段春锋 Chen Xiaoyi;Yao Yun;Wang Xiaodong;Zhang Hongqun;Duan Chunfeng(Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hefei 230031,China;Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031,China;Shouxian National Climate Observatory,Shouxian 232200,China;Huaihe River Basin Typical Farm Eco-meteorological Experiment Field of CMA,Shouxian 232200,China;Anhui Agrometeorological Center,Hefei 230031,China;Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230031 [2]大气科学与卫星遥感安徽省重点实验室,合肥230031 [3]寿县国家气候观象台,安徽寿县232200 [4]中国气象局淮河流域典型农田生态气象野外科学试验基地,安徽寿县232200 [5]安徽省农业气象中心,合肥230031 [6]安徽省气候中心,合肥230031

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第6期24-31,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC021900);国家自然科学基金项目(41705014)。

摘　　要：为防御旱涝灾害,保障粮食安全,利用1971—2018年ENSO的特征量、不同位相及安徽省78个站点的气象数据和全省灾情、作物产量数据,采用比较法、x^(2)拟合检验法,分析ENSO的特征量、不同位相与安徽省典型干旱和涝渍年的关系及ENSO对安徽省主要粮食作物产量的影响。结果表明:(1)厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件均发生在春季到秋季(4—10月),结束在初夏之前(1—6月),其峰值大部分出现在冬季(1月和11—12月)。(2)典型干旱和涝渍年各发生11年,平均2~3年出现1次,大多集中在20世纪80年代初到90年代中期。(3)安徽省典型干旱年出现在厄尔尼诺事件对涝渍的当年或拉尼娜事件的次年的概率大,厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件对安徽省旱灾的影响相当;典型涝渍年出现在厄尔尼诺事件对涝渍的次年或拉尼娜事件的当年的概率大,且厄尔尼诺事件对涝渍的影响远大于拉尼娜事件的影响。(4)ENSO持续时间越长、强度越大,越易发生干旱和涝渍灾害,干旱和涝渍灾害易发生在ENSO的衰减年或波峰后。(5)厄尔尼诺事件的衰减年,主要粮食作物以减产为主;拉尼娜事件的衰减年,小麦增减产年份相当,而一季稻、玉米则以增产为主。In order to prevent drought and flood disasters and ensure food security,the relationship between ENSO characteristic quantity,different phases and serious drought and flood(waterlog)years and the effects of ENSO on the grain yield in Anhui Province are analyzed by using the comparison method and chi-square x 2 test method as well as the meteorological data from 78 stations,disaster situation and grain yield data from 1971 to 2018.The results show that:(1)Both El Ni o and La Ni a events occurred from spring to autumn(April to October),and ended before early summer(January to June),with most peaks appearing in winter(November to the next January).(2)The typical years with drought or flood(waterlog)were 11 respectively.The average occurrence was once every 23 years,and most of them occurred from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s.(3)The probability of serious drought was high in the year of EL Ni o or the next year after La Ni a.The influence of El Ni o and La Ni a events on drought were similar in Anhui Province.The probability of serious flood(waterlog)was high in the next year after EL Ni o or in the year of La Ni a,and the impact of EL Ni o on flood(waterlog)was far greater than that of La Ni a.(4)The longer the duration and the greater the intensity of ENSO,the more likely the drought and flood(waterlog)disasters occurred.Drought and flood(waterlog)disasters were more likely to occur during the damping year of ENSO events and after the peak of ENSO events.(5)The main grain yield was mainly reduced during the damping year of EL Ni o.In the damping years of La Ni a event,the years with the increase and decrease in winter wheat yield were similar,while the yield of rice and maize was dominant mainly by increasing trends.

关 键 词：ENSO事件 安徽省 旱涝灾害 粮食产量 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学] S165.27[农业科学—农业基础科学]