洪涝风险与发展潜力视角下村庄居民点布局优化——以福建省长汀县为例  

Layout Optimization of Village Settlements from the Perspective of Flood Risks and Development Potential:A Case Study in Changting County,Fujian Province

作　　者：徐建刚[1] 曾俊 吴军 付博 明昊霖 XU Jiangang;ZENG Jun;WU Jun;FU Bo;MING Haolin

机构地区：[1]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 [2]河南省自然资源厅

出　　处：《南方建筑》2024年第1期55-63,共9页South Architecture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52178043):基于复杂系统模拟的跨区域国土空间韧性耦合机制与规划方法研究——以长三角地区为例。

摘　　要：全球气候变化加剧和城镇化快速推进使得洪涝灾害发生频率和破坏性显著升高,为应对洪涝灾害利用风险评估指导村庄居民点布局优化,以福建省长汀县为例,运用模糊综合评价方法划定洪涝风险等级区,通过双重目标决策法对村庄灾害风险和发展潜力进行综合评价,并基于引力模型确定村庄迁移方案。结果表明,长汀县洪涝灾害高风险区域主要分布在以汀州镇与大同镇为主体的集中建设区及以部分村庄居民点,针对高风险村庄居民点,以“避灾”为导向提出了村庄迁移合并方案,实现了村庄居民点布局的适灾和减灾优化调整。对于区域防控洪涝灾害、减少灾害损失具有重要作用,对山地村庄空间防灾减灾规划实施有较强指导意义。The frequency and destructive impacts of floods increase significantly due to intensifying climate change and rapid urbanization.Nevertheless,village settlement layout planning based on risk evaluation of flooding requires further exploration.Based on analysis of flood generation mechanisms in Changting County,Fujian Province,an index system was built using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation from the perspective of disaster-inducing factor risks and sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment.Changting County was divided into different flood disaster risk grades by building a fuzzy membership function.Based on flood risk evaluation in Changting County,the disaster risk levels within village administrative boundaries were determined.Villages were evaluated comprehensively by the dual-goal decision plane method according to disaster risks and development potential.Villages were divided into five development types:priority development,size control,potential optimization,characteristic protection,and evacuation for integration.Finally,the gravity model(which was improved based on the cost-distance method)proposed specific strategies for evacuation villages.Research results show that highrisk zones in Changting County present the spatial distribution pattern of"one zone,multiple points"."One zone"refers to the concentrated construction area centered on Dingzhou Town and Datong Town,covering an area of about 12.38km2."Multiple points"refers to the high-risk nodes scattered in different towns and villages,mainly Cewu Town,Hetian Town,Nanshan Town,Tufang Town,Zhuotian Town,Gucheng Town,and so on.The underlying surface conditions influence occurrence of flood disasters to a significant extent.The increased hard construction lands decrease rainwater infiltration and surface roughness,increasing local surface runoff and thus intensifying the risk of flooding.Evacuation for disasters becomes an important mean for village areas with a small population density and scattered settlements to cope with natural disasters.For 10 evacua

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险评估 模糊综合评价法 发展潜力 村庄布局 

分 类 号：TU982.29[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]