基于Markov-PLUS模型的福州市土地利用变化及情景模拟  

Land Use Change and Multi⁃scenario Simulation Based on Markov⁃PLUS Model in the Fuzhou City

作　　者：阳洪洁 姜春 郑瑞 史聪敏 YANG Hong-jie;JIANG Chun;ZHENG Rui(School of Public Management and Law,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理与法学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2024年第2期56-62,68,共8页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：福建省教育厅中青年教师科研项目(JAT170168);2018年度社科类国家级科研项目培育计划;福建省社科研究基地重大项目(FJ2022MJDZ020)。

摘　　要：为探究福州市土地利用变化规律,基于2000、2010和2020年GlobeLand30数据集,运用土地利用动态度和转移矩阵对2000—2020年土地利用演变进行剖析,采用Markov-PLUS模型对2030年土地利用的多情景变化趋势进行模拟。结果表明:2000—2020年,建设用地和水域面积增加,建设用地主要由耕地转入,其他用地面积减少。Markov-PLUS模型模拟总体精度为0.89,Kappa值为0.80,模拟效果较好。自然发展情景延续历史发展趋势,建设用地持续增长,以市辖区和闽侯县扩张最为突出,其他区(县、市)建设用地侵占周边耕地且集聚特征明显;城镇发展情景下,耕地、林地和草地均大面积减少,建设用地大幅增加,耕地和建设用地重心分别向东南和东北方向偏移,空间集聚特性进一步增强;耕地保护情景下,耕地主要向林地和建设用地转化,面积缩减的态势得到有效控制,重心迁移幅度较小;生态保护情景下,林地、草地和水域面积显著增加,建设用地增速得到有效控制,此情景更符合研究区区域发展和生态保护的双重诉求。研究可为福州市未来土地利用规划编制和土地可持续利用情景预测提供科学参考。In order to investigate the land use change patterns in the Fuzhou City.Based on the GlobeLand30 datasets in the year 2000,2010 and 2020,the methods of land use dynamic degrees and transfer matrix were used to analyze the characteristics of land use change from 2000 to 2020,the Markov⁃PLUS model was applied to predict the trend of spatial⁃temporal land use patterns in 2030.The results are as follows,from 2000 to 2020,the area of construction land and watershed increases,the area of other land decreases,and the construction land is mainly trans⁃ferred from arable land.The overall simulation accuracy of the Markov⁃PLUS model is 0.89,the Kappa value is 0.80,which shows a good simu⁃lation effect.The natural development scenario continues the historical development trend,construction land continues to grow,with the most prominent expansion in the municipal district and Minhou County,and construction land in other districts(counties and cities)encroaches on surrounding arable land with obvious clustering characteristics.Under the urban development scenario,construction land increases significantly,forest land,arable land and grassland are all greatly reduced,and the center of gravity of construction land and arable land shift to the northeast and southeast respectively,with spatial clustering characteristics.Under the scenario of arable land protection,the arable land is mainly trans⁃ferred to forest land and construction land,and the reduction of area is effectively controlled,and the center of gravity shifts less.Under the sce⁃nario of ecological protection,the area of forest land,grassland and watershed increases significantly,and the growth rate of construction land is effectively controlled,which is more consistent with the dual requirements of regional development and ecological protection in the study area.This study can provide scientific reference for the preparation of future land use planning and the prediction of sustainable land use scenarios in Fuzhou.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 多情景模拟 Markov-Plus模型 福州市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]