全球供应链格局新趋向及我国的战略考量  

New Trends in Global Supply Chain Patterns and Strategic Considerations for China

作　　者：杨志浩 孙小宁 YANG Zhi-hao;SUN Xiao-ning(Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS,Beijing 100006,China;Institute of Economics of SASS,Shanghai 200020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京市100006 [2]上海社会科学院经济研究所,上海市200020

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2024年第2期46-56,共11页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大专项“新冠疫情背景下产业链供应链转移对中美关系影响研究”(22VMG010);中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)项目;中国社会科学院“青启计划”资助项目“中外合资网络对我国供应链韧性的影响研究”(2024QQJH106)。

摘　　要：供应链安全是构建现代化产业体系的重要保障,深刻影响着我国经济的现代化进程。利用全球双边商品贸易数据,结合社会网络分析方法,考察全球供应链格局新趋向和我国面临的供应链新特征。研究表明,近年来全球供应链呈“慢全球化”特征,并演化为四大供应链社团,我国代替日本成为供应链社团新核心。以印度为核心的供应链社团异军突起,引领了全球第四大供应链社团。全球供应链的脆弱性增大,以美国为核心的供应链社团以及高技术产品供应链的脆弱性增势尤为明显。我国的供应链资源调配力增速趋缓,其中,高技术产品供应链的资源调配力放缓最为明显;高技术产品供应链呈近岸化趋势,且断供风险有所提高;中技术产品和低技术产品供应链维持远岸化态势,且断供风险持续下降。我国应以国际局域合作为依托,推动供应链全球化;以我国产业发展阶段为基础,推动供应链保稳工作;警惕以美国为中心的供应链社团潜在阻断点危机及其外溢风险,加快构建保障供应链安全的分级发展机制,充分利用“引进来”和“走出去”政策对冲供应链风险。Supply chain security is an important guarantee for building a modern industrial system and has a profound impact on the modernization process of China's economy.The authors use massive global bilateral commodity trade data,combined with social network analysis methods,to examine the new trends in the global supply chain pattern and the new characteristics of China's supply chain.It is found that,in recent years,global supply chains have shown the characteristic of slow globalization and evolved into four major supply chain communities,and China replaces Japan as the new core of the supply chain community.The supply chain community with India as its core has emerged and led the world's fourth largest supply chain community.The vulnerability of global supply chains is increasing,especially in supply chain communities centered around the United States and high-tech product supply chains.From the perspective of China,the growth rate of supply chain resource allocation is slowing down,with the slowdown in the supply chain of high-tech products being the most significant;the supply chain of high-tech products is showing a trend towards nearshore integration,with increased risk of supply disruption;and the supply chain of medium and low tech products is maintaining a trend of being far shore,and the risk of supply chain interruption increased.China should promote supply chain globalization by taking international local cooperation as the basis,promote supply chain stability based on the stage of industrial development in China,be wary of potential supply disruption point crises and spillover risks in supply chain communities centered around the United States,accelerate the construction of a hierarchical development mechanism to ensure the security of China's supply chain,and hedge supply chain risks in China by giving full play to the role of"bringing in"and"going out"policies.

关 键 词：全球供应链 脆弱性 近岸化 社团化 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]