按行自抑:崛起国何以战略收缩  

Self-restraint:Domestic Reason for Rising Power Strategic Retrenchment

作　　者：普宜媛 Pu Yiyuan(School of International and Public Af-fairs,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学公共外交学院

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2024年第1期25-59,I0001,I0002,共37页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

摘　　要：作为积蓄自身实力、缓解外部安全压力的战略手段,战略收缩成为部分崛起国的主要选择,但崛起国出现战略收缩现象却缺少相应的理论逻辑解释。既有研究往往关注秩序更迭时期霸权国战略收缩以应对崛起国挑战,而忽视了崛起国在崛起时期选择有限战略收缩的现实。基于战略手段调整时序、战略资源分配以及战略目标修订等维度辨析,本文将扩张与收缩等战略选项相联结,并通过能力与意愿两种内部政治逻辑考察俾斯麦德国与北宋统一初期的两个战略收缩案例,两者在存在相当程度的外部收益预期下,基于国内政治逻辑选择战略收缩,从而延缓、甚至避免了霸权国与崛起国秩序之战的出现。探究崛起国在大国竞争中维持自身战略定力存在内部政治机理,有助于重新思考国际秩序大变局下的崛起国战略选择。As a strategic means of accumulating strength and alleviating external security pressures,strategic retrenchment has become a major choice for some rising powers.However,the phenomenon of strategic retrenchment among rising powers has yet been theorised.Existing studies often focus on the strategic retrenchment of hegemonic powers during the order replacement period to address the challenges of rising powers,while neglecting the aspect of rising powers choosing limited strategic retrenchment during their rise.Based on the analysis of the timing of strategic adjustment,the allocation of strategic resources,and the revision of strategic objectives,this paper connects expansion and contraction as strategic options;and examines two strategic retrenchment cases of Bismarck's Germany and the early Song Dynasty's reunification.Both cases involved strategic retrenchment based on domestic political logic,thereby delaying,or even avoiding,the emergence of an order war with the hegemonistic powers,despite the pres⁃ence of considerable external expectations.Investigating the internal political mechanisms by which rising powers maintain their strategic stability in the com⁃petition between great powers helps to rethink the strategic choices of rising powers under the great transformation of the international order.

关 键 词：战略收缩 文武关系 国家汲取能力 俾斯麦德国 北宋统一战争 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]