基于Logistic模型的覆膜种植辣椒株高、果实生长及产量模拟  

Simulation of Plant Height,Fruit Growth and Yield of Pepper under Different Film Mulching Conditions Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：陈晨 张刘东 倪匡迪 CHEN Chen;ZHANG Liudong;NI Kuangdi(College of Water Conservancy,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学水利学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期1049-1058,共10页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51669035);云南省高层次人才培养支持计划青年拔尖人才项目(YNWR-QNBJ-2020-168);云南省农业联合专项(202301BD070001-099)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究昆明地区不同地膜覆盖方式下辣椒株高及果实生长发育与坐果时间的关系,建立产量预测模型,为区域辣椒覆膜种植提供技术参考。【方法】2020—2021年开展2轮辣椒垄作覆膜种植试验,分析不同覆膜方式和不同颜色地膜覆盖对辣椒株高、果实鲜质量以及果实纵、横径的影响,构建植株株高以及果实生长发育Logistic模型,通过实测值验证模型的模拟精度,并使用Logistic模型预测不同覆膜方式处理下辣椒的最高产量。【结果】除对膜下种植处理株高的决定系数(R^(2))<0.88、均方根误差(RMSE)>20%以及对无膜种植处理果实横径的R^(2)<0.70、RMSE>20%外,建立的模型对模拟辣椒植株生长、果实纵径和横径随坐果时间的生长以及对辣椒产量的预测具有较高的精度。【结论】本研究所建立的模型能够较好地模拟昆明地区不同覆膜方式处理下辣椒植株高度和果实生长随生育时间的变化过程。[Purpose]To study the relationship among pepper plant height,fruit growth and fruit set-ting time under different plastic film mulching methods in Kunming area,and to establish a pepper yie-ld prediction model,providing technical guidance for pepper film mulch planting.[Methods]From 2020 to 2021,mulching film planting experiments were carried out to analyze the effects of different mulching methods and mulching colors on the pepper plant height,fruit fresh weight and fruit diamet-er.The experimental results of plant height and fruit growth was used to verify the simulation accur-acy of Logistic model,and the model was used to predict the highest yield of pepper under different treatments.[Results]Except for the coefficient of determination(R^(2))<0.88 for plant height under film-mulching planting treatment,the root mean square error(RMSE)>20%,and the R^(2)<0.70 and RMSE>20%for transverse diameter of fruit under non film-mulching planting treatment,the estab-lished model had high accuracy for simulating pepper plant growth,pepper fruit longitudinal and transverse diameters with fruit setting time,and prediction of pepper yield.[Conclusion]The es-tablished model can well simulate the development of pepper plant height and fruit growth with physiological time under different mulching methods in Kunming area.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC模型 辣椒 株高 生长发育 产量 

分 类 号：S641.301[农业科学—蔬菜学]