汶川县降雨时空分布特征及设计暴雨频率分析  

Analysis on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and designed rainstormfrequency in Wenchuan County

作　　者：谢雅洁 刘曙光[1] 周正正 XIE Yajie;LIU Shuguang;ZHOU Zhengzheng(College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第1期105-112,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD1100401)。

摘　　要：为减少降雨及设计暴雨时空异质性对汶川县造成的损失,揭示汶川县降雨时空分布特征与设计暴雨特征,基于2001~2020年的GPM卫星降雨数据,采用Mann-Kendall等方法,从年、月、汛期、日等时间尺度和不同量级尺度,对汶川县降雨时空变化进行分析,并采用随机暴雨移置法(Stochastic Storm Transposition, SST)进行设计暴雨频率分析。结果表明:(1)汶川县年总降雨量呈显著增长趋势,主要受汛期降雨变化影响。(2)降雨空间分布不均匀,小雨主要分布在汶川县西南部,中到暴雨主要分布在汶川县东部。(3)基于随机暴雨移置法得到的设计降雨结果具有可靠性;随着降雨历时的增长,设计暴雨中心有从汶川县西南部向中东部移动的趋势;小重现期时,设计暴雨的空间分布不均匀性更为显著。研究成果可为汶川县暴雨洪涝防治提供参考。To reduce the loss caused by spatio-temporal heterogeneity of rainfall and designed rainstorm to Wenchuan County,and reveal the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of rain fall and the characteristics of designed rainstorm in Wenchuan County,based on the GPM satellite rainfall data from 2001 to 2020,Mann-Kendall method are used to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Wenchuan County from time scales of year,month,flood season,day and different scales of magnitude,and Stochastic Storm Transposition(SST)method is used to analyze the frequency of designed rainstorm.The results show that:①the annual total rainfall in Wenchuan County shows a significant growth trend,which is mainly affected by the rainfall changes in the flood season.②The spatial distribution of rainfall is uneven.Light rain is mainly distributed in the southwest of Wenchuan County,and moderate rain to rainstorm is mainly distributed in the east of Wenchuan County.③The designed rainfall results obtained based on SST method are reliable;with the increase of rainfall duration,the designed rainstorm center has a tendency to move from the southwest to the central and eastern part of Wenchuan County;the spatial non-uniformity of the designed rainstorm is more significant for small return period.The research results can provide reference for rainstorm and flood control in Wenchuan County.

关 键 词：降雨时空分布 设计暴雨 随机暴雨移置法 汶川县 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]