基于地区线性矩法的四川省24 h极值降雨频率分析  

Frequency analysis of 24-hour extreme rainfall in Sichuan Province based on regionalL-moments method

作　　者：胡静 王帅人 覃光华[1] 黎小东[1] 兰平 HU Jing;WANG Shuairen;QIN Guanghua;LI Xiaodong;LAN Ping(College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610042,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610042

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第1期113-119,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51879172);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2021SCU2040)。

摘　　要：为探究四川省24 h极值降雨在不同重现期不同频率下的时空分布特征,采用地区线性矩法划分四川省水文气象一致区,确定最优拟合线型,并验证地区线性矩法在站点稀疏地区的适用性,随后估计四川省24 h不同重现期降雨频率值,分析其时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)四川省可划分为40个水文气象一致区,经线型拟合优度检验,主要线型为GLO、GEV和GNO,其中川西高原地区的最优线型大多为GLO,盆地区域的最优线型大多为GEV。(2)地区线性矩法在站点相对稀疏的川西高原地区具有良好的适用性。(3)四川省内不同地区24 h极值降雨空间分布十分不均,同一重现期下不同地区降雨频率估计值的最大值可达最小值的10倍。To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of 24-hour extreme rainfall in different return periods and different rainfall frequencies in Sichuan Province,this study divided the hydrometeorological homogeneous regions of Sichuan Province by the regional L-moments method,then determined the best fitting curve,and the applicability of regional L-moments method in the west Sichuan Plateau were verified.Then we estimated the rainfall frequency values in different 24-hour recurrence periods of Sichuan Province,and its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed.The results showed that:①Sichuan Province can be divided into 40 hydrometeorological homogeneous regions.The main fitting curves of Sichuan Province were determined as GLO,GEV,and GNO through conducting goodness-of-fit tests.GLO was the best-fitting curve in the West Sichuan Plateau.GEV was the best-fitting curve in most of the basin areas.②The regional L-moments method had good certain applicability to the western Sichuan plateau area where the stations were relatively sparse.③The spatial distribution of 24-hour rainfall extreme in Sichuan Province was significantly heterogeneous.Under the same return periods,the maximum value of the estimated rainfall frequency in different areas can be up to 10 times of the minimum value.

关 键 词：极值降雨 多重现期 降雨频率 地区线性矩法 四川省 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]