入库口湿地干湿状态影响下的洪水模拟研究  

Study on reservoir inflow simulations considering wet and dry states of upper wetlands

作　　者：杜淼磊 吴剑[1] 彭勇[1] 杨玉林 李敏[1] 崔允东 王浅宁 DU Miaolei;WU Jian;PENG Yong;YANG Yulin;LI Min;CUI Yundong;WANG Qianning(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Xinlicheng Reservoir Authority,Changchun 130119,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]新立城水库管理局,长春130119

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2024年第1期47-58,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52309009);国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3202803)。

摘　　要：水利工程的修建直接影响了流域水文响应过程,增加了流域洪水模拟的难度和不确定性。本文以新立城湿地为研究对象,建立特征指标体系将历史洪水按照湿地蓄水状态划分为湿地干旱、湿润状态下洪水,分析湿地干湿状态下入库洪水的水文特征,通过调整新安江水文模型参数以概化入库口湿地的影响,对入库洪水进行模拟。研究结果表明,采用前期雨量和洪水出现次数可较好地将湿地蓄水状态划分为干旱、湿润两种状态,考虑湿地干湿状态影响后新安江模型对湿地干旱、湿润状态下两类洪水的模拟效果均较好,洪水模拟精度可达甲级水平,能较为准确地模拟出入库口湿地干湿状态影响下流域入库洪水,可为同类其他流域水文建模提供思路。The construction of hydraulic projects directly affects the hydrological response of a river basin,increasing the difficulty and uncertainty of flood forecasting.Through a case study of the Xinlicheng wetlands,this paper first chooses several characteristic indexes to identify the arid or humid state of wetlands,and groups the relevant historical flood events into two sets-the arid wetlands and humid wetlands.Then,we analyze the hydrological characteristics of the corresponding two types of flood events.On this basis,we develop a new method to consider the impact of the wetlands on reservoir inflows by adopting the Xin’anjiang model and modifying its sensitive parameters.The results show that the two-type wetlands can be reasonably divided using the antecedent precipitation and the occurrence times of previous flood events,and the simulation results of flood events are satisfactory for each type.Our new method simulates effectively the reservoir inflows affected by the upper wetlands,useful and applicable to other similar basins.

关 键 词：洪水预报 入库口湿地 洪水分类 新安江模型 新立城水库 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]