税制结构变动与地区产出波动——来自劳动力市场的灵活性  

Changes in Tax Structure and Regional Output Volatility--From Labour Market Flexibility

作　　者：史晓红[1] 江泽源 Shi Xiaohong;Jiang Zeyuan(School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Hefei 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《黑河学院学报》2024年第1期46-50,78,共6页Journal of Heihe University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目“安徽省脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接困境与路径优化”(SK2021A0273);安徽省哲学社会科学基金项目一般项目“新发展阶段城乡融合的机制创新与路径优化研究”(AHSKY2022D092);安徽省教育厅人文社科重大项目“安徽省中心城市综合承载力提升研究”(SK2020ZD002)。

摘　　要：《十四五规划纲要》指出,完善税制结构体系是必要的,但幅度必须适当。检验2000—2018年我国税制结构变动与地区产出波动的影响机制以及就业结构对其的重要调节作用。研究发现:以直接税占比、间接税占比、房产税占比衡量的税制结构变动会负向影响地区产出,且各影响因素的作用有明显的差异;税制结构变动对产出的影响,表现为明显的区域异质性,对于不同经济属性、地理区位的省份,其影响效果存在明显的不同;税制结构变动显著的通过就业渠道影响地区产出变动。在调整税制结构的过程中,政策执行者需要采取配套的就业措施,以减轻在优化税制结构过程中,提高各税种比例所造成的效率损失。The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan points out that it is necessary to improve the tax system structure with appropriate pace.This study examines the influence mechanism of the change of tax structure and regional output fluctuation in China from 2000 to 2018,and the important regulating eff ect of employment structure on it.The results show that the changes of tax structure measured by the proportion of direct tax,indirect tax and real estate tax will negatively aff ect regional output,and the eff ects of each influencing factor are obviously diff erent.The eff ect of tax structure change on output shows obvious regional heterogeneity,and the eff ect is obviously diff erent for provinces with diff erent economic attributes and geographical location.The change of tax structure significantly aff ects the change of regional output through employment channels.In the process of adjusting the tax structure,policy implementers need to take supporting employment measures to reduce the efficiency loss caused by increasing the proportion of various taxes in the process of optimizing the tax structure.

关 键 词：税制结构变动 地区产出波动 劳动力就业结构 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]