省级交通运输服务指数构建与应用  

Construction and Application for Provincial Transportation Service Index

作　　者：陈治君 李洁云 蒲雯 栾庆熊 CHEN Zhi-jun;LI Jie-yun;PU Wen;LUAN Qing-xiong(Yunnan Science Research Institute of Communications Co.,Ltd.,Kunming Yunnan 650000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省交通科学研究院有限公司,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2023年第12期270-278,共9页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目(ZDZB201907)。

摘　　要：为客观反映交通运输经济运行态势和宏观经济发展趋势,促进交通强国建设试点省份建设,针对云南省交通运输经济运行分析综合性指标单一、定量分析深度不够、交通运输服务指数研究空白的特点,基于美国交通运输服务指数(TSI)和中国交通运输服务指数(CTSI)构建框架和思路,选取具有云南交通特色的运量基础指标体系,通过增加值、增加值系数、周转量占比指标建立了三级权重设置体系并进行权重优化,提出了省级交通运输服务指数构建模型。采用费舍尔理想指数,计算客运服务指数、货运服务指数和交通运输服务指数,并与CTSI对比分析。通过定性和定量分析研究了交通运输服务指数和GDP之间的关系,探索交通运输发展与宏观经济发展之间的适应程度和协调性。结果表明:云南省客运、货运、综合交通运输服务指数同比增速与CTSI呈现出“同增同减”的一致变化规律,但增速比CTSI增速略慢,表明云南交通经济运行水平略微低于全国水平,进一步验证和分析了云南省交通运输服务指数构建的科学性和稳健性;交通运输服务指数与GDP指数增速高度相关,表明经济的飞速发展将产生量大质高的运输需求,带动交通运输全面融入经济增长之中。In order to objectively reflect the transportation economic and macroeconomic trends and promote the construction of“Building a strong transportation province”,aiming at the characteristics of single comprehension index,insufficient depth of quantitative analysis and blank research on transportation economic index in Yunnan province,based on the framework and ideas of American transportation service index(TSI)and China transportation service index(CTSI),by selecting the transportation volume index system with Yunnan transportation characteristics,optimizing the weights by constructing a three-level weight setting system with added value,added value coefficient and turnover ratio,a provincial transportation service index construction model is proposed.The Fisher ideal index is used to calculate the passenger service index,freight service index and transportation service index,and compared with CTSI.The relationship between transportation service index and GDP by qualitative and quantitative analysis is studied,and the adaptability and coordination between transportation development and macroeconomic development is explored.The result shows that(1)The growth rate of passenger transport,freight transport and comprehensive transportation service index of Yunnan province is consistent with that of CTSI,but the growth rate is slightly slower than that of CTSI,it shows that the level of transportation economy in Yunnan is slightly lower than the national level,and the scientific and robust construction of Yunnan transportation service index is further validated and analyzed.(2)The transportation service index is highly correlated with the GDP growth,indicating that the rapid economic development will produce large quantity and high quality transportation demand,and drive the transportation into the economic growth.

关 键 词：运输经济 交通运输服务指数 费舍尔理想指数 运输量 GDP指数 

分 类 号：F512.3[经济管理—产业经济]