基于实物期权的先进核能系统投资价值评估模型研究  

Research on Investment Value Evaluation Model of Advanced Nuclear Energy System Based on Real Options

作　　者：李震 王思成[3] 祁明亮 闫雪松[3,4] 高敏刚 LI Zhen;WANG Sicheng;QI Mingliang;YAN Xuesong;GAO Mingang(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Institute of modern physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou,730000;Advanced Energy Science and Technology Guangdong Laboratory,Huizhou 516003)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院近代物理研究所,兰州730000 [4]先进能源科学与技术广东省实验室,惠州516003

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2023年第11期679-686,共8页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：2022年国家电网有限公司科学技术项目(5108-202218280A-2-186-XG):公司战略性新兴产业发展的环境分析、运营监测与科学决策技术研究,负责人:鲁强。

摘　　要：先进核能系统能有效解决核电的铀燃料利用率低和乏燃料有效处理难等问题,研发先进核能系统投资额度大,且具有较大不确定性,科学评估先进核能系统投资价值,有助于筹措经费,提高投资者投资意愿。本研究考虑了实验研发成本、工业示范成本、商业运营成本、以及收益等不确定性因素,以Barone-Adesi Whaley(BAW)美式期权模型为基础,构造了技术价值评估方法。运用该方法评价了先进核能系统A研发与示范项目的装机规模、技术进步、不同功率情景、电价、工期延长,以及成本超支等因素对其首堆投资价值的影响。结果表明,工业示范阶段工期延长将负面影响其经济性,但当装机规模达到5GW时,会消除工期延长带来的负面影响。Advanced nuclear energy systems can effectively solve the problems of low uranium fuel utilization and difficulty in effectively treating spent fuel in nuclear power.The investment amount for developing advanced nuclear energy systems is large and has great uncertainty.Scientific evaluation of the investment value of advanced nuclear energy systems can help raise funds and enhance investors'investment willingness.This study considered the uncertainty factors such as experimental R&D costs,industrial demonstration costs,business operating costs,and benefits.Based on the Barone-Adesi Whaley(BAW)American option model,a technical value evaluation method was constructed and used to evaluate the installed capacity,technological progress,different power scenarios,electricity prices,extension of construction period of advanced nuclear energy system A R&D and demonstration projects,and the impact of cost overruns on the investment value of its first reactor.The results show that the extension of the construction period in the industrial demonstration stage will negatively affect its economy,but when the installed capacity reaches 5GW,the negative impact of the extension of the construction period will be eliminated.

关 键 词：先进核能系统 投资价值评估 实物期权 BAW模型 科研管理 

分 类 号：F426.23[经济管理—产业经济]