冲偏出跑道事件演化网络构建与分析  

Construction and analysis of evolution network of runway excursion events

作　　者：程明 梅傲然 CHENG Ming;MEI Aoran(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第12期77-84,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：民航安全能力建设项目(ASSA2022/13);中央高校基本科研业务费资助(3122018F003);中国民航大学研究生科研创新项目(2021YJS013)。

摘　　要：为探究冲偏出跑道事件形成机制,降低事件发生概率,基于情景推演和复杂网络理论,分析冲偏出跑道事件演化机制,构建冲偏出跑道事件演化网络模型;计算带权有向网络的节点度、介数中心性、聚类系数、网络密度等静态特征;并基于级联失效理论,分析冲偏出跑道事件演化网络的危险传播路径。结果表明:冲偏出跑道事件演化网络的网络密度为013,平均聚类系数为0404,平均路径长度为1549,表现出网络的小世界特性;关键节点接地速度大、油门杆、发动机损坏的综合值分别为05083、04912、04871;在危险传播关键路径中接地速度大、油门杆(操作失误)、复飞在各传播链中出现的频率较高,是危险传播中的重要节点。In order to study the formation mechanism of runway excursion events and reduce the probability of events,this paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of runway excursion events based on scenario deduction and complex network theory,and constructed the evolution network model of out-of-runway events.The static characteristics of the weighted directed network were calculated,including the node degree,betweenness centrality,clustering coefficient and network density.Based on the cascading failure theory,the dangerous propagation path of the evolution network of the runway event was analyzed.The results show that the network density of the evolutionary network is 0.13,the average clustering coefficient is 0.404,and the average path length is 1.549,which shows the small-world characteristics of the network.The comprehensive values of large grounding speed of key nodes,throttle rod and engine damage are 0.5083,0.4912 and 0.4871,respectively.In the critical path of dangerous propagation,the frequency of grounding speed,throttle rod(operation error)and re-flight in each propagation chain is high,which is an important node in dangerous propagation.

关 键 词：冲偏出跑道事件 复杂网络 演化网络 风险因素 级联失效 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]